# Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/miguel-dazcanel-out-as-leader-of-cuba
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 58%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 6%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 58¢ | ±0 | $353 | polymarket | /markets/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-polymarket-0x115374e9cb26f7c375f35cdfec08167024dbfc5a20f339806d81236ed25ab781 |
| June 30 | 6¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-polymarket-0x119db6dda44f109bcdc2ec5e1d9cb8c21fa1a7e66489f59b1190fdfb25c0d515 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 64 | 19 |
| 2026-06-12 | 58 | 11 |
| 2026-06-17 | 57 | 6 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This prediction reflects a 58% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel will be removed as Cuba's leader by a specific date. The assessment reflects uncertainty around political succession in Cuba, where institutional mechanisms for leadership change are limited and controlled by the regime. The probability would likely increase if international pressure intensifies, internal party fractures become visible, or health crises emerge affecting leadership stability. Conversely, successful consolidation of party authority or external demonstrations of regime strength would lower the estimate. The key driver is whether structural instability or internal power struggles will overcome the regime's control mechanisms before the resolution date.

### Key factors

- Díaz-Canel's health status and public appearances as indicators of regime stability
- Visible rifts within Cuba's Communist Party leadership or military establishment
- Economic deterioration or humanitarian crises that destabilize state institutions
- International diplomatic or economic pressure campaigns targeting regime change
- Succession planning signals from the Castro family or other established power networks

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/miguel-dazcanel-out-as-leader-of-cuba
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=miguel-dazcanel-out-as-leader-of-cuba

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.