# Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/miguel-dazcanel-out-as-president-of-cuba-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $931

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | 4¢ | −1pp | $931 | polymarket | /markets/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-president-of-cuba-by-june-polymarket-0x48874462b88af831a4d90479286c6c1d4cd683a6b119d926f85ac66549385b21 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 15 |
| 2026-06-12 | 8 |
| 2026-06-17 | 5 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Miguel Díaz-Canel will be removed from the Cuban presidency within the next three weeks. At 12%, the market is pricing this as unlikely but not negligible. The current probability appears driven by the routine nature of Cuba's political succession processes and the lack of any announced leadership transition, which would push expectations lower. Conversely, any serious political instability, health crisis, or internal party pressure could drive the probability higher. Since there is no scheduled election or formal succession event before June 30, the main catalyst would be an unexpected political development or public announcement regarding Díaz-Canel's status. The tight timeframe (23 days remaining) and the absence of current signals suggest most market participants view an involuntary exit as a low-probability tail event.

### Key factors

- No scheduled leadership transition or election is planned before June 30, 2026
- Díaz-Canel has maintained control of both the presidency and the Communist Party leadership as of early June 2026
- Any removal would likely require action from Cuba's ruling structures, which would need to occur and be publicly announced within 23 days
- Historical precedent shows Cuban leadership transitions are typically planned well in advance rather than sudden or unexpected
- Market trading volume remains modest ($8,144 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited conviction among participants on either side

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=miguel-dazcanel-out-as-president-of-cuba-june-30

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