# Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...

> December 31, 2026 leads at 34%, runner-up 9% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker
Updated: 2026-05-03T20:50:53.521Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31, 2026 at 34%
- Runner-up: June 30, 2026 at 9%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 34¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0xfa36659c97e233539fd77a8f9525d2f1664eba5ea57c4bed72c8101ba5266d15 |
| June 30, 2026 | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0xef416cfd80afbb43c7550a8fe0f950679ab3d6e60551e2a90f230106809fe2c5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31, 2026 | June 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 25 | 7 |
| 2026-04-19 | 36 | 9 |
| 2026-04-26 | 37 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 38 | 6 |
| 2026-04-30 | 69 | 9 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · December 31, 2026 −26pp 69→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · June 30, 2026 +15pp 6→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · December 31, 2026 −14pp 43→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · June 30, 2026 −14pp 21→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · December 31, 2026 +12pp 38→50¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 28% probability indicates traders assess a roughly one-in-four chance that Speaker Mike Johnson loses his position before a specified date. The forecast reflects ongoing political fragmentation in the House, where Johnson has faced pressure from both moderate Republicans seeking compromise on spending and conservatives demanding ideological purity. His narrow majority and previous challenges securing votes on key legislation have created vulnerability. The probability would likely rise if major policy votes fail, if a significant bloc of Republicans formally calls for his ouster, or if party leadership signals reduced support. The primary driver of resolution will be whether House Republicans can maintain cohesion through the remainder of 2026, particularly around budget negotiations and any leadership challenges that emerge during campaign season.

### Key factors

- Johnson's razor-thin majority requires near-unanimous Republican support on contentious votes, making defections a recurring risk factor
- Historical precedent: three Speakers have been removed via motion to vacate since 2015, establishing that removal is a viable political tool
- The timing of major fiscal deadlines and appropriations negotiations in late 2026 will test party unity and generate leverage for potential challengers
- Midterm campaign dynamics may create incentives for factional challenges if party performance appears weak or if primary battles emerge
- Current market pricing at 28% versus 19% on Polymarket suggests modest disagreement about removal probability across trading venues

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mike-johnson-out-as-speaker

## License

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