# Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer — 4.2-4.4m sq km

> <4m sq km leads at 50%, runner-up 14% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-summer
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.153Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-01

## Headline

- Leader: <4m sq km at 50%
- Runner-up: 4.0-4.2m sq km at 14%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $93

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <4m sq km | 50¢ | +4pp | $44 | polymarket | /markets/min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer-4m-sq-km-polymarket-0xa776ef6b16f785ca718dfaf177743793acda4ee06c721253b868831f5089590c |
| 4.0-4.2m sq km | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer-40-42m-sq-km-polymarket-0xa185967aec34ff498a0c8c99c5819ae02f0402a2ba568016a9ad1fac75627099 |
| 4.2-4.4m sq km | 7¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer-42-44m-sq-km-polymarket-0x4c3dcf02d9c59d91b45c6d1d2005b5727587aa8071c02271f89fef4b3bfb38ad |
| 4.6-4.8m sq km | 6¢ | −8pp | $49 | polymarket | /markets/min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer-46-48m-sq-km-polymarket-0x2b4c48fee6abf0782b1b9e3f4388f32b028d559e34dbad32c7755c9265514e7c |
| 4.4-4.6m sq km | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer-44-46m-sq-km-polymarket-0x1454f7aabd1736d276e3a16c9d3840d5a0f31b15162e92602825db3f27c89f9c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | <4m sq km | 4.0-4.2m sq km | 4.2-4.4m sq km |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 61 | — | 11 |
| 2026-04-10 | 57 | 15 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 40 | 12 | 13 |
| 2026-04-30 | 38 | 18 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 29 | 14 |
| 2026-05-07 | 54 | 14 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 58 | 15 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 4.0-4.2m sq km −16pp 33→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · <4m sq km +12pp 38→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · 4.6-4.8m sq km −8pp 15→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 4.6-4.8m sq km +7pp 8→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 4.0-4.2m sq km +6pp 23→29¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts that the Arctic's minimum sea ice extent this summer will fall between 4.2 and 4.4 million square kilometers. Currently priced at 44% on Polymarket, this outcome sits between the 4.0–4.2m range (33%) and represents the modal expectation among traders. Arctic sea ice extent depends primarily on spring and early-summer air temperatures, ocean warmth, and atmospheric circulation patterns. The key catalyst is the seasonal minimum measurement, typically recorded in mid-September, which depends on conditions from now through late summer. Factors driving the current pricing include recent ice-tracking data through May, seasonal climate forecasts from NOAA and other agencies, and historical trends showing multi-year oscillations in minimum extent. The contract will resolve based on satellite observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) or equivalent authoritative source.

### Key factors

- Current Arctic sea ice extent as of early May 2026 relative to recent 5–10-year average and historical trends
- Spring and early-summer air temperatures in the Arctic and adjacent regions, measurable via reanalysis data and weather forecasts
- Sea surface temperatures in ice-marginal zones, which influence melt rates from June through August
- Arctic Oscillation and other large-scale atmospheric circulation modes that affect wind patterns and ice transport
- NOAA seasonal climate outlook and model ensemble forecasts for northern-hemisphere summer conditions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-summer
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-summer

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.