# Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 5 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/minasgov
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.236Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleitinho Azevedo | 60¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleitinho-azevedo-win-the-2026-minas-gerais-g-kalshi-kxminasgov-26oct04-caze |
| Rodrigo Pacheco | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rodrigo-pacheco-win-the-2026-minas-gerais-gub-kalshi-kxminasgov-26oct04-rpac |
| Alexandre Kalil | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandre-kalil-win-the-2026-minas-gerais-gub-kalshi-kxminasgov-26oct04-akal |
| Mateus Simões | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mateus-simes-win-the-2026-minas-gerais-gubern-kalshi-kxminasgov-26oct04-msim |
| Gabriel Azevedo | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gabriel-azevedo-win-the-2026-minas-gerais-gub-kalshi-kxminasgov-26oct04-gaze |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 58 |
| 2026-05-07 | 4 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Gabriel Azevedo +3pp 1→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the current market assessment that Alexandre Kalil will win the Minas Gerais gubernatorial election scheduled for later in 2026. At 21%, the market is pricing Kalil as an underdog, suggesting other candidates are viewed as more likely to prevail. The current assessment reflects Kalil's political standing in the state, including his incumbency status and recent polling data relative to likely opponents. The election itself will be the decisive event, though intermediate factors like campaign developments, polling shifts, and endorsements will likely move this probability throughout the pre-election period. Market participants are trading on expectations about voter preferences in this major Brazilian state contest.

### Key factors

- Kalil's approval ratings and job performance as governor will directly influence voter support levels
- Composition and strength of the opposing candidate field, including whether a consensus opposition candidate emerges
- Recent polling data showing Kalil's relative position versus other viable candidates in head-to-head matchups
- Campaign spending and organizational capacity compared to main competitors in the lead-up to election day
- Broader political trends in Minas Gerais, including regional economic conditions and voting patterns from recent elections

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/minasgov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=minasgov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.