# Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> Peggy Flanagan leads at 81%, runner-up 17% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.778Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: Peggy Flanagan at 81%
- Runner-up: Angie Craig at 17%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $726

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 81¢ | ±0 | $726 | polymarket | /markets/minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-winner-peggy-f-polymarket-0x125d64e41a8b3225d81e84ec1fbeb58b1d8091fa9d54a9f500e01a00586baf9a |
| Angie Craig | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-winner-angie-c-polymarket-0xa718870d98c2f9c76efd54629365c24fe87804eb1b28e287ca5344b5924931f0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Peggy Flanagan | Angie Craig |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 16 |
| 2026-04-10 | 80 | 17 |
| 2026-04-24 | 72 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 77 | 18 |
| 2026-05-08 | 81 | 18 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Peggy Flanagan +3pp 77→80¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The market currently prices the leading candidate in Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary at a 77% probability of winning, implying roughly 1-in-4 odds for the runner-up. This probability reflects expectations about candidate viability, endorsements, fundraising, and polling data available to market participants. The main driver of the current level is likely the frontrunner's visibility and establishment support relative to competitors. The probability could shift materially based on new polling, major endorsements, debate performance, or fundraising disclosures. The primary election itself will ultimately resolve this outcome. Until then, changes in media coverage, candidate drops, or unexpected endorsements remain the most likely catalysts for significant probability movement.

### Key factors

- Head-to-head polling matchups between the frontrunner and runner-up, if public surveys show tightening or widening margins
- Endorsements from high-profile Minnesota Democrats or labor unions, which can signal organizational backing and voter persuasion capacity
- Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand reported in FEC filings, indicating resources for advertising and field operations
- Candidate dropout decisions, which reallocate voter preference and consolidate support around remaining contenders
- Primary election date and any scheduled debates or campaign events that may shift voter awareness or candidate momentum

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.