# Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/minnesota-united-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:23.640Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 41% / Polymarket 32% — 9pp spread
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Surge | 13¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-vancouver-surge-win-the-los-angeles-thieves-v-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031500latvan-van |
| Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass | 53¢ | −7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-nithya-raman-and-karen-bass-be-the-nominees-i-kalshi-kxlamayormatchup-26jun-nramkbas |
| Los Angeles Thieves | 85¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-thieves-win-the-los-angeles-thiev-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031500latvan-lat |
| Nithya Raman vs. Spencer Pratt | 23¢ | −7pp | $632 | kalshi | /markets/will-nithya-raman-and-spencer-pratt-be-the-nominee-kalshi-kxlamayormatchup-26jun-nramspra |
| Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt | 25¢ | +3pp | $526 | kalshi | /markets/will-karen-bass-and-spencer-pratt-be-the-nominees-kalshi-kxlamayormatchup-26jun-kbasspra |
| Los Angeles Thieves | 54¢ | −2pp | $512 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-thieves-win-map-2-in-the-los-ange-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031500latvan-2-lat |
| Over 3.5 maps | 55¢ | −23pp | $312 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-maps-be-played-in-the-los-angeles-thi-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031500latvan-4 |
| Vancouver Surge | 17¢ | ±0 | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-vancouver-surge-win-map-1-in-the-los-angeles-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031500latvan-1-van |
| O/U 3.5 | 23¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 27¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ne-polymarket-0x52ecc53ae751a4a04406a38d2eae3d0bb5c00a4010daf306acb60d6c2f391539 |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x087e96b348af724088fc5c0c9620932971bbee21079bd0619bac94f9d8554031 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x3b1359b9f8079ea94c2bd322eac8ad2a438ee02512379e968426b64f1395c2a6 |
| Los Angeles FC (-1.5) | 30¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-lo-polymarket-0xe4ead24bcac5166d1bae6a470ba123e2cbdb92fd779b7db7398eb820073c9aca |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xfb53dd6e13e99ece1a90b3bc7f0934ba6bdf58aef1c18fd059cd33befde82bf6 |
| Los Angeles FC (-2.5) | 28¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-lo-polymarket-0x8cd527f3f12d1be337c35190a6bfe356675629909cbf9b532efdb5173accd5dd |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ne-polymarket-0x749d6005cbd935d0457b1ba46084f8fed6e75daea118208b0a6f978d36a9214e |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0x361d0825fd5d45ed9f9fffca2764928f720727ea72d2576db6974c6d2de1fcba |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x0e25b551a118495f7e2c433fd68e6e53fcf38d6641d1723c648e6161691a6674 |
| O/U 4.5 | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-los-chankas-vs-cd-garcilaso-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x34c090d697d0d70ddd4addd8298b9d9a430566a82786f660dbb003d046cfbb23 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 20 |
| 2026-04-20 | 34 |
| 2026-04-26 | 18 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Over 3.5 maps +43pp 10→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 3.5 maps −23pp 56→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt +8pp 13→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass −7pp 58→51¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/minnesota-united-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=minnesota-united-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets

## License

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