# Will Martell D Bivings be the Republican nominee for MI-13

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 51% across 15 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/miprimary
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:50.588Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Brink | 80¢ | +2pp | $420 | kalshi | /markets/will-bridget-brink-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-m-kalshi-kxmiprimary-07d26-bbri |
| Kyle Blomquist | 12¢ | ±0 | $209 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-blomquist-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxmiprimary-01d26-kblo |
| Tim Greimel | 9¢ | +1pp | $196 | kalshi | /markets/will-tim-greimel-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mi-kalshi-kxmiprimary-10d26-tgre |
| Robert Lulgjuraj | 17¢ | +1pp | $148 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-lulgjuraj-be-the-republican-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxmiprimary-10r26-rlul |
| TP Nykoriak | 90¢ | −2pp | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-tp-nykoriak-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mi-kalshi-kxmiprimary-13r26-tnyk |
| Callie Barr | 81¢ | +6pp | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-callie-barr-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mi-kalshi-kxmiprimary-01d26-cbar |
| William Lawrence | 10¢ | ±0 | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-william-lawrence-be-the-democratic-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxmiprimary-07d26-wlaw |
| Jack Bergman | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jack-bergman-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mi-kalshi-kxmiprimary-01r26-jber |
| Ben Ambrose | 61¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-ambrose-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mi-kalshi-kxmiprimary-02d26-bamb |
| Clyde Welford | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clyde-welford-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-m-kalshi-kxmiprimary-02d26-cwel |
| Jamie Hill | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamie-hill-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mi-0-kalshi-kxmiprimary-02d26-jhil |
| Ryan Cushman | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-cushman-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mi-kalshi-kxmiprimary-03r26-rcus |
| Terri DeBoer | 87¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-terri-deboer-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mi-kalshi-kxmiprimary-03r26-tdeb |
| Sean McCann | 92¢ | +46pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sean-mccann-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mi-kalshi-kxmiprimary-04d26-smcc |
| Bill Huizenga | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-huizenga-be-the-republican-nominee-for-m-kalshi-kxmiprimary-04r26-bhui |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 44 |
| 2026-06-12 | 49 |
| 2026-06-19 | 43 |
| 2026-06-25 | 31 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · TP Nykoriak +8pp 69→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · TP Nykoriak +8pp 77→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Tim Greimel −7pp 16→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Callie Barr +6pp 80→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · TP Nykoriak +4pp 87→91¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the probability that Martell D Bivings will win the Republican nomination contest for Michigan's 13th congressional district. At 28%, the market suggests Bivings is considered a meaningful contender but not the frontrunner. The nomination probability reflects ongoing primary competition dynamics in MI-13, where voter preferences, candidate endorsements, and fundraising performance shape outcomes. The metric would move higher if Bivings gains significant endorsements or demonstrates strong grassroots support through polling or turnout indicators, and would decline if a rival candidate consolidates backing or outpaces fundraising. The primary election itself will be the decisive moment, resolving whether Bivings translates current market positioning into actual nomination victory. Until then, shifts in this probability track changes in candidate viability and expected delegate strength within the Republican primary electorate.

### Key factors

- Current market pricing of 28% reflects Bivings as a secondary contender relative to other MI-13 Republican candidates not shown in top contract data
- Nomination outcomes depend on primary voting patterns and delegate allocation rules specific to Michigan's Republican process
- Fundraising totals, endorsement cascades, and polling momentum in the coming weeks can shift perceived viability and nomination probability substantially
- The primary election date for MI-13 will definitively resolve this contract, with all nomination uncertainty collapsing to either 0% or 100% at that point
- Trading volume of 20 contracts suggests moderate but not deep market liquidity for this specific nomination race

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/miprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=miprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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