# Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito

> Mirassol FC leads at 62%, runner-up 24% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mirassol-fc-vs-ldu-de-quito
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:08.693Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: Mirassol FC at 62%
- Runner-up: Draw (Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito) at 24%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $46

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol FC | 62¢ | — | $46 | polymarket | /markets/mirassol-fc-vs-ldu-de-quito-mirassol-fc-polymarket-0xb0e76a74159b58ca3e1bc78d9a0f08ba56c25a21958215665500a6cd5bbfd967 |
| Draw (Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito) | 24¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mirassol-fc-vs-ldu-de-quito-draw-mirassol-fc-vs-ld-polymarket-0xd5d33c2faa1d9d40ab5de073dd12fa6a13e67dc5e2e3a020a3c1ee189ded5228 |
| LDU de Quito | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mirassol-fc-vs-ldu-de-quito-ldu-de-quito-polymarket-0xccb69805e72db787fac2e14fd0bf66f410b4db64ddba86757755938c769c74f8 |

## Analysis

This represents the implied probability that Mirassol FC will defeat LDU de Quito in an upcoming match. The 62% price suggests market participants view Mirassol as the favored outcome, though roughly one-in-four traders expect a draw. The probability level is driven by factors such as current league standings, recent form of both teams, home-field advantage if applicable, and squad availability. The match result will be determined on the scheduled game date, which will directly resolve this contract. Volume data shows limited trading activity, suggesting either low awareness among traders or confidence in the current pricing. The 24% draw probability indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether the teams will play to a stalemate, which would affect the final outcome distribution.

### Key factors

- Mirassol FC is priced at 62 cents while LDU de Quito is at 14 cents, with draws at 24 cents, suggesting asymmetric confidence in the outcome
- The primary contract shows $46 in 24-hour volume, indicating sparse recent trading relative to broader prediction markets
- LDU de Quito has a separate Copa Libertadores winner contract trading at 4 cents, suggesting longer-term uncertainty about the team's tournament prospects
- Draw probability at 24% reflects meaningful possibility of a stalemate outcome, affecting Mirassol's effective win probability
- The aggregated probability derives from only two Polymarket contracts with modest liquidity, limiting data diversity for this specific matchup

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mirassol-fc-vs-ldu-de-quito

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