# Mirassol FC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 20 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mirassol-fc-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:05:21.677Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-03

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 33% / Polymarket 30% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 29¢ | +2pp | $678 | kalshi | /markets/mirassol-vs-corinthians-winner-corinthians-kalshi-kxbrasileirogame-26may03mircor-cor |
| Mirassol | 40¢ | +1pp | $148 | kalshi | /markets/mirassol-vs-corinthians-winner-mirassol-kalshi-kxbrasileirogame-26may03mircor-mir |
| Tie | 29¢ | +1pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/mirassol-vs-corinthians-winner-tie-kalshi-kxbrasileirogame-26may03mircor-tie |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 22¢ | +1pp | $66 | kalshi | /markets/corinthians-at-mirassol-totals-over-35-goals-score-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03mircor-3 |
| Mirassol FC | 62¢ | — | $46 | polymarket | /markets/mirassol-fc-vs-ldu-de-quito-mirassol-fc-polymarket-0xb0e76a74159b58ca3e1bc78d9a0f08ba56c25a21958215665500a6cd5bbfd967 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 70¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/corinthians-at-mirassol-totals-over-15-goals-score-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03mircor-1 |
| SC Corinthians Paulista | 38¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0xb8cbcacec9cc7c9317ec00f09148ab9c3d7a75182d1bddaf7c11a901f90b69e4 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5) | 9¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x559461c25f175b01a1cbf6e4b72940b22f539eaf75dd59ecaca75722a2fd3557 |
| SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x71f745c092060c8f80e06e6bed5141039827ad2a3fb79dfbb6322455bd9b44e7 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x5735da3e7d2a090ad05c030f77efb55ebc2288982ec45be75358f0e57d648821 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0xd128a438d67165805df816880348c9da14f4a48c449293d0a25e97f0e23233d7 |
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x96cfcd71ed45e08b312ba37155767a1409aa65d9265dd47e691650b966761513 |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x65835d9cb539cf33b6489619365554af29a588a1cee0ddd74e727d6981c3d417 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x13712fed686d2b8c9fb4a3cfb1024a67967a412094efa5871638bff56c6025b6 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x40633c2276af9f1982d3f919553af750dfe4d763a443056d9c52de4c6191f8d8 |
| Draw (Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x13d4e172345029d05355aac3de341064570a9c04b4554b89d11086a5432206b7 |
| Independiente Santa Fe | 35¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0xcf1ee37c45e00bddb2f367a12b4577900490644a0edd63e8b41b10f361611f60 |
| SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5) | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0xd92e3c6facd7cfe3772dc6c05c64835117ff536547aa381a46e39188f1b328a1 |
| Draw (Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito) | 24¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mirassol-fc-vs-ldu-de-quito-draw-mirassol-fc-vs-ld-polymarket-0xd5d33c2faa1d9d40ab5de073dd12fa6a13e67dc5e2e3a020a3c1ee189ded5228 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 9¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/corinthians-at-mirassol-totals-over-45-goals-score-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03mircor-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 22 |
| 2026-05-03 | 28 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Mirassol +11pp 26→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +11pp 51→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored +10pp 8→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Tie +5pp 21→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Mirassol +3pp 37→40¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mirassol-fc-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mirassol-fc-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista

## License

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