# Who will win the 2026 Michigan Supreme Court election

> Democrat sweep leads at 88%, runner-up 6% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/misc
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:50.000Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Democrat sweep at 88%
- Runner-up: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican at 6%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat sweep | 88¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-michigan-supreme-court-elect-kalshi-kxmisc-26-2d |
| 1 Democrat and 1 Republican | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-michigan-supreme-court-elect-kalshi-kxmisc-26-1dr |
| Republican sweep | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-michigan-supreme-court-elect-kalshi-kxmisc-26-2r |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Democrat sweep | 1 Democrat and 1 Republican | Republican sweep |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 85 | 6 | 5 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Markets currently price a Democratic sweep of Michigan's Supreme Court races at 88%, meaning traders estimate roughly a 9-in-10 chance that both open seats will be won by Democratic candidates. This reflects Michigan's recent electoral lean, where Democrats have performed strongly in statewide contests, combined with structural factors favoring one party across both races. The main variables affecting this probability are turnout patterns in November 2026, candidate fundraising and name recognition, any late-breaking scandals or judicial decisions that shift voter sentiment, and polling trends over the coming months. The November 2026 general election itself will be the decisive event, though meaningful shifts in this probability could occur if major polling updates or campaign developments emerge between now and then.

### Key factors

- Michigan Democrats won three statewide races in 2022 (governor, secretary of state, attorney general) with margins exceeding 10 points, establishing a blue trend in recent electoral cycles
- Turnout composition in off-year elections versus presidential cycles affects the balance—November 2026 is a midterm with no presidential race, which typically alters voter demographics
- Specific candidate quality, fundraising totals, and name recognition for both Democratic and Republican nominees will materially influence individual race outcomes
- Recent Michigan Supreme Court decisions on abortion rights and election administration have shaped voter priorities and may drive partisan polarization
- Public polling released in fall 2026 showing either party gaining ground or specific candidate momentum could shift market probabilities before the November election

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/misc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=misc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.