# Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race

> Abdul El-Sayed leads at 45%, runner-up 25% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/misenate
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.814Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Abdul El-Sayed at 45%
- Runner-up: Mike Rogers at 25%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $723

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed | 45¢ | ±0 | $90 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-michigan-senate-race-abdul-e-kalshi-kxmisenate-26-aels |
| Mike Rogers | 25¢ | — | $4 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-michigan-senate-race-mike-ro-kalshi-kxmisenate-26-mrog |
| Mallory McMorrow | 23¢ | +1pp | $630 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-michigan-senate-race-mallory-kalshi-kxmisenate-26-mmcm |
| Haley Stevens | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-michigan-senate-race-haley-s-kalshi-kxmisenate-26-hste |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | Mallory McMorrow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | — | 25 | 25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 43 | — | 22 |
| 2026-05-08 | 43 | — | 23 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Mallory McMorrow −3pp 25→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Abdul El-Sayed is currently priced at 38% to win Michigan's 2026 Senate race, indicating markets view him as the frontrunner but not an overwhelming favorite. Mike Rogers at 24% and Mallory McMorrow at 25% remain competitive alternatives, suggesting substantial uncertainty about the general election dynamics. The probability reflects expectations about candidate viability, Democratic base enthusiasm, and Republicans' ability to mobilize against the Democratic nominee. Factors that could shift this include primary results, candidate fundraising trajectories, economic conditions affecting voter sentiment, and polling showing shifts in swing-voter preferences. Major catalyst points include the Democratic primary vote scheduled for early 2026 and subsequent general election polling, which will clarify whether the frontrunner maintains support or faces erosion to challengers.

### Key factors

- Democratic primary outcome will determine the nominee and their subsequent matchup strength against Republican opposition
- Polling trends in Michigan swing counties and among independent voters will influence viability calculations as the general election approaches
- Fundraising and campaign infrastructure levels for El-Sayed relative to Rogers and McMorrow suggest resource constraints that may affect voter reach
- Turnout expectations in Michigan's core Democratic areas versus suburban and rural regions will determine which candidate's coalition is viable
- National political environment and approval ratings of the incumbent administration will shape overall partisan lean going into November 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/misenate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=misenate
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.