# MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner

> 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez leads at 37%, runner-up 15% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 28 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlb-al-hank-aaron-winner
Updated: 2026-06-17T16:20:18.741Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-13

## Headline

- Leader: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez at 37%
- Runner-up: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Nick Kurtz at 15%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $317

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez | 37¢ | −5pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-al-hank-aaron-winner-yordan-alvarez-polymarket-0x396b535aa31e56ac8cef5b26f271eb5c132b3dbe6e10988d49f88d63fc3bfd58 |
| 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Nick Kurtz | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-al-hank-aaron-winner-nick-kurtz-polymarket-0xb509c405fd1320c8509c45218fb4a8c2579cc255c6130e0bd714ab165cc8fcd4 |
| 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Bobby Witt Jr. | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-al-hank-aaron-winner-bobby-witt-jr-polymarket-0x01bc044b2cb4175110308b6d35feb6fa8dfe96881108c0a9bb5743a6248209d6 |
| 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: José Ramírez | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-al-hank-aaron-winner-jos-ramrez-polymarket-0x6359895f8a3da37cb8c9568b40fc418e7b7c8fc5365a605ce5275fda5aaf44d7 |
| 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Julio Rodríguez | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-al-hank-aaron-winner-julio-rodrguez-polymarket-0x2dd5e7b822f28c63abff6c4308f41b1b3471145127a318d82c6cb02b216b6f85 |
| 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Aaron Judge | 3¢ | −1pp | $311 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-al-hank-aaron-winner-aaron-judge-polymarket-0xb040d3eff979a01b34d6c5952faf1c490e77c7a4f8dff3733e3d826d37525c2d |
| 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-al-hank-aaron-winner-vladimir-guerrero-jr-polymarket-0xeda10cc8809a8a6f8723b6ba1dabac71bebf02844fc1d422292d73bfc0b7ebde |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez | 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Nick Kurtz | 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Bobby Witt Jr. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 20 | 6 | 9 |
| 2026-06-02 | — | — | 9 |
| 2026-06-04 | 29 | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 35 | 14 | 28 |
| 2026-06-09 | — | — | 19 |
| 2026-06-10 | 35 | 23 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 38 | 16 | 9 |
| 2026-06-17 | 33 | — | 9 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-10 · 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Nick Kurtz +11pp 12→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Bobby Witt Jr. −10pp 19→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-11 · 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Nick Kurtz −9pp 23→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez −5pp 38→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The current 35% probability indicates that one specific player is considered the favorite to win the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award (given to the league's top hitter), though the lack of a clear consensus shows genuine uncertainty in the market. The level reflects early-season performance data and preseason expectations; it could shift upward if the current leader maintains a significant batting average or slugging percentage advantage through the season, or downward if other contenders emerge with stronger offensive numbers. The main catalyst driving resolution will be the accumulation of actual 2026 batting statistics through the regular season, with final voting occurring after the season concludes in late September or early October. Currently, no single player has priced-in dominance comparable to the 36% assigned to Shohei Ohtani in the NL race, suggesting the AL field remains fragmented.

### Key factors

- Current leader's cumulative offensive production (batting average, slugging percentage, RBIs) versus nearest competitors through mid-season and into September
- Injury status and availability of top contenders, which would directly affect their statistical accumulation and voting eligibility
- Historical voting patterns for the Hank Aaron Award, including whether voters favor traditional counting stats (RBIs, hits) or rate-based metrics (average, OPS)
- Relative strength of individual competitors' teams and playoff success, which can influence voter perception in close races
- Market concentration: the leader holds 35% while runner-up holds 26%, indicating fragmentation across remaining candidates rather than broad consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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