# MLB: ERA Leader

> ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez leads at 21%, runner-up 12% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlb-era-leader
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.337Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-28

## Headline

- Leader: ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez at 21%
- Runner-up: ERA Leader: Paul Skenes at 12%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $216

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez | 21¢ | −7pp | $136 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-era-leader-cristopher-snchez-polymarket-0x8830e93d28757906355f6903be376ac6c75a389c4f332a5191422c9bb5848e59 |
| ERA Leader: Paul Skenes | 12¢ | −1pp | $80 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-era-leader-paul-skenes-polymarket-0x8023abc486382321bcdd36e473b126bb0375d58a0e84525abb8599bbccf1050f |
| ERA Leader: Hunter Brown | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-era-leader-hunter-brown-polymarket-0x0cf756e8de944bd10a2109dc9830f52947b7d5a6c16bb054e581c53443fe5f48 |
| ERA Leader: Tarik Skubal | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-era-leader-tarik-skubal-polymarket-0x3a6dbd7a7cca8a61ef0213852b423fea51f0bcf9462098ad5065f5e96ccfb8e7 |
| ERA Leader: Seth Lugo | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-era-leader-seth-lugo-polymarket-0x639b42acc640087105c4ea911d34dbd4168f736b983a59990cc9f770e146d2ca |
| ERA Leader: Dylan Cease | 3¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-era-leader-dylan-cease-polymarket-0x775441e3bf2d5a2ee8007f9b7064294d7676226e53ea6837277cf3c2c6775d14 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez | ERA Leader: Paul Skenes | ERA Leader: Hunter Brown |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 34 | 19 | — |
| 2026-05-19 | 6 | 19 | 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | 8 | 18 | 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | 14 | 17 | 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | 22 | 12 | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez +15pp 14→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez −7pp 29→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez −5pp 13→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez +5pp 9→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · ERA Leader: Paul Skenes −4pp 17→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 19% probability reflects market expectations that Paul Skenes will finish the 2026 MLB season with the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers. The market views this outcome as possible but unlikely, with Ohtani and Sánchez rated nearly as probable. ERA leadership will be determined by cumulative performance over the full season through September 2026. The primary drivers are each pitcher's health, consistency, team defensive support, and workload management. October's final regular-season results will resolve the contract, with qualifying criteria (typically 67 innings pitched minimum) determining eligibility. Early-season performance and injury updates will shift probabilities throughout the year, though the bulk of statistical divergence typically occurs in the final month.

### Key factors

- Paul Skenes currently has 19¢ pricing despite lowest trading volume ($80 24h), suggesting thin liquidity rather than confident backing relative to top-volume contracts (Ohtani at $485)
- Ohtani and Sánchez combined represent 32¢ of probability, indicating market skepticism that any single pitcher dominates ERA races this season
- Qualifying pitchers must typically reach 67+ innings pitched; injury risk for any pitcher in this group could eliminate them before season's end
- ERA leadership typically determined in final month of season; early rankings are weak predictors, making this contract highly sensitive to July-September pitcher health and performance
- Current pricing suggests no clear consensus favorite, with four pitchers within 4-19¢ range, indicating high uncertainty about seasonal outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlb-era-leader
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlb-era-leader

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.