# MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals

> 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Washington Nationals leads at 90%, runner-up 90% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlb-regular-season-win-totals
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.144Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-05

## Headline

- Leader: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Washington Nationals at 90%
- Runner-up: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Cleveland Guardians at 90%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $383

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Washington Nationals | 90¢ | +5pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-washington-nati-polymarket-0x18de85de5c7613f8e4dc438b56f6045f399868be796d3e66cf69284a7441a293 |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Cleveland Guardians | 90¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-cleveland-guard-polymarket-0x5acf91a1ec3866295fed2139742d380ffa68fd197ee2f58b2e7594317d44ec4d |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Chicago White Sox | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-chicago-white-s-polymarket-0xbd5e702534c99e27ee625f3c9281464c9d9e391317fa700324de6f63c215a798 |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: New York Yankees | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-new-york-yankee-polymarket-0x89b2dace58f22169aba6613bc97da772a7d28a3355553eae39ab05edbfb4a184 |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Tampa Bay Rays | 86¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-tampa-bay-rays-polymarket-0xda7bfbe6200fd79ab493260f8b54d33d29c6b2b3c86e141aa56dc330482972ad |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Atlanta Braves | 84¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-atlanta-braves-polymarket-0x774eb803a44c7787d41ad33b07fdfa695c7d7deccdd8572bc97652bab3606a8f |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Houston Astros | 49¢ | +15pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-houston-astros-polymarket-0x24e16c617c114cd32afbb2dc7c6f14a9fabc5c7eb04b1c377ac215eee1ac227a |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Texas Rangers | 48¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-texas-rangers-polymarket-0xb96e0a5fd3b0acb313b94ce71b891607b4a6c247922de565daaa6f00019297c1 |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Seattle Mariners | 44¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-seattle-mariner-polymarket-0x18ea0e3d1a4e01d397d27c075418c4c503f6c4d361cd0acd68f6ca69cb02517e |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Athletics | 35¢ | −10pp | $106 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-athletics-polymarket-0xe1f7738825ecb84c58838737ac860a452dbbaa454217683a2acd7feb939d155b |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Cincinnati Reds | 34¢ | −6pp | $127 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-cincinnati-reds-polymarket-0x52fa6e23ffbfb3becb559844d778723d81c7174e5da0715355af406e5308a54b |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Toronto Blue Jays | 30¢ | −3pp | $102 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-toronto-blue-ja-polymarket-0xdf12355081cd896d27ff01031bddd00ed0f52671416ca53d45f0015f39913c3b |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Minnesota Twins | 27¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-minnesota-twins-polymarket-0x82f79450d689796b5241ea5a7c882800c87bfd5a55f854493289b329c128fd47 |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Boston Red Sox | 25¢ | +1pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-boston-red-sox-polymarket-0xfb3e0b1be7c5f091a5764911442c125e8800b8b895207df8bead9f35d17c6bd8 |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Los Angeles Angels | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-los-angeles-ang-polymarket-0x216af18b5cf6b4a917de540fc47eb2b3e5c7d7e6fddbb578fc631256ae95f13b |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Philadelphia Phillies | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-philadelphia-ph-polymarket-0xf129408a6f6b391a7fd1b4ee2fcfb20f124734450bd44b4ac39814b9b1a2b962 |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Baltimore Orioles | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-baltimore-oriol-polymarket-0xe85d2c9896019f4f998f444648b5748a96f90bc5e8fd78cb6e07dfbb2aecf9c6 |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Kansas City Royals | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-kansas-city-roy-polymarket-0x42d7a6b7d4a75c0faa831497da272bfe71ab6f146ed705814a3fb71f83a58567 |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Detroit Tigers | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-detroit-tigers-polymarket-0x1c9f63293ce0c8b8e765196d23f880e6b020fca378a0e5b1a12c32295ce079ee |
| 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: New York Mets | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-regular-season-win-totals-new-york-mets-polymarket-0x98226dd1dd27b14ed02aaff22b06b3e317c411c5c6012cccaf03cbbc76128ae0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Washington Nationals | 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Cleveland Guardians | 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 77 | 72 | 78 |
| 2026-05-25 | 82 | 79 | 82 |
| 2026-06-01 | 89 | 89 | 91 |
| 2026-06-08 | 90 | 90 | 90 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Houston Astros +15pp 24→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Cincinnati Reds −13pp 53→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Athletics −11pp 56→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Athletics −10pp 45→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Minnesota Twins −8pp 35→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that a specific team will finish with a particular number of wins in the 2026 MLB regular season. The current 81% probability for the leading contract reflects asymmetric confidence among traders rather than even odds. Win total predictions depend heavily on roster stability, injury developments throughout the season, and trading activity at the deadline. The start of the regular season on March 28, 2026 (already underway) and ongoing performance data will continuously resolve uncertainty as teams accumulate actual wins. As the season progresses, opening-day expectations will be replaced by live performance, making early-season results—particularly the first 50 games—a critical catalyst that either validates or contradicts preseason win projections.

### Key factors

- Current contract prices (Athletics 33¢, Pirates 38¢) suggest market skepticism about lower-end win totals, while mid-range teams (Giants 51¢, Mariners/Astros 61¢) show tighter consensus
- Trading volume is concentrated on Athletics (24h volume of $31), indicating active disagreement on that specific outcome versus minimal recent trading on other contracts
- Win total contracts are binary outcomes dependent on final regular-season records (162 games), making cumulative performance through June a strong early indicator of which contracts remain viable
- Roster composition and injury rates directly affect win projections; teams with significant mid-season injuries or roster changes will deviate from preseason expectations
- The 20-contract structure with highest contract at 81% and runner-up at 64% indicates no single outcome is heavily favored, reflecting genuine distribution of possible final records across multiple teams

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlb-regular-season-win-totals
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlb-regular-season-win-totals

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.