# MLB Predictions

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 10 contracts — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlb
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:11.678Z
Category: sports · Topic: mlb
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-31

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $61K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 11¢ | ±0 | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-championshi-kalshi-kxmlb-26-atl |
| New York Y | 12¢ | +1pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-champion-kalshi-kxmlb-26-nyy |
| Milwaukee | 5¢ | +2pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-milwaukee-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-champions-kalshi-kxmlb-26-mil |
| Los Angeles D | 28¢ | ±0 | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-champ-kalshi-kxmlb-26-lad |
| Toronto | 3¢ | +1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-toronto-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-championshi-kalshi-kxmlb-26-tor |
| Tampa Bay | 3¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-champions-kalshi-kxmlb-26-tb |
| Seattle | 8¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-championshi-kalshi-kxmlb-26-sea |
| Philadelphia | 4¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-champi-kalshi-kxmlb-26-phi |
| Chicago C | 3¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-c-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-champions-kalshi-kxmlb-26-chc |
| Cleveland | 3¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-champions-kalshi-kxmlb-26-cle |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 10 |
| 2026-05-25 | 9 |
| 2026-06-01 | 13 |
| 2026-06-07 | 5 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Milwaukee −4pp 6→2¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 18% probability reflects aggregated market expectations for a specific MLB championship outcome in 2026, currently showing disagreement between venues with Polymarket pricing 16 percentage points higher than Kalshi. The divergence suggests uncertainty about how to weigh available information: team composition, injury status, and regular-season performance through May. Trading volume concentrates on traditional contenders like Atlanta (11¢), New York Yankees (13¢), and Los Angeles Dodgers (30¢ on Polymarket), indicating markets are pricing based on pre-season roster strength and early-season results. The probability would move upward if the relevant team demonstrates sustained winning performance, maintains key player health, and shows statistical advantages in metrics like run differential. Conversely, injuries, trades, or consistent underperformance would pressure it lower. Resolution occurs in October 2026 when the World Series concludes.

### Key factors

- The target team's win-loss record and playoff position as of mid-season (June-July cutoff) versus consensus preseason projections
- Injury status of star players and whether key roster additions or subtractions occur via trade deadline (July 31, 2026)
- Polymarket's 16-point premium over Kalshi suggests pricing differences based on available information; verification requires checking if one venue has access to more recent injury reports, trades, or performance data
- Trading volume concentration on higher-seeded favorites (Atlanta, Yankees, Dodgers) versus the target team indicates relative market confidence tiers
- Historical correlation between May performance and October outcomes for comparable rosters in similar competitive windows

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlb
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/mlb

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.