# Will Toronto win the 2026 Pro Baseball American League Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 10 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbal
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.092Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-31

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Y | 31¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-nyy |
| Seattle | 17¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-le-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-sea |
| Tampa Bay | 7¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-tb |
| Toronto | 6¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-toronto-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-le-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-tor |
| Houston | 3¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-le-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-hou |
| Chicago WS | 5¢ | ±0 | $417 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-ws-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-cws |
| Baltimore | 4¢ | ±0 | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-bal |
| Texas | 5¢ | ±0 | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-leag-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-tex |
| Cleveland | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-cle |
| Detroit | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-american-le-kalshi-kxmlbal-26-det |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 16 |
| 2026-06-12 | 9 |
| 2026-06-19 | 9 |
| 2026-06-26 | 10 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · New York Y −3pp 34→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · New York Y +3pp 28→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Houston +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 9% probability that Toronto will win the 2026 American League pennant, based on aggregated pricing from Kalshi contracts. The probability sits near the lower end of contender ranges, suggesting market participants view Toronto as a moderate longshot relative to division favorites. The main drivers of this price are Toronto's recent roster composition and regular-season performance trajectory through May 2026. The probability would move higher if the team demonstrates sustained offensive or pitching improvements during the 2026 regular season, or lower if key players underperform or injuries mount. The resolution ultimately depends on the full 162-game season and playoffs, with the pennant clinched in October 2026 when only one AL team remains.

### Key factors

- Toronto's current win-loss record and win percentage relative to other AL teams as of early May 2026
- Recent roster changes, injuries to key players, or trades that impact competitive depth compared to division rivals
- Comparative betting prices for other AL contenders (Yankees, Boston, Tampa Bay, Houston, Kansas City) to assess relative market confidence
- Playoff qualification odds historically correlate with pennant-winning probability; teams with <50% playoff odds rarely win league championships
- Remaining schedule strength and inter-division matchup outcomes between now and October, affecting playoff seeding and path to the AL Championship Series

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.