# Will Mike Trout win AL CPOTY

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 7 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalcpoty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.178Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $43

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 27¢ | −1pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-trout-win-al-cpoty-mike-trout-kalshi-kxmlbalcpoty-26-mtro |
| Yordan Alvarez | 53¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yordan-alvarez-win-al-cpoty-yordan-alvarez-kalshi-kxmlbalcpoty-26-yalv |
| Anthony Volpe | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthony-volpe-win-al-cpoty-anthony-volpe-kalshi-kxmlbalcpoty-26-avol |
| Royce Lewis | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-royce-lewis-win-al-cpoty-royce-lewis-kalshi-kxmlbalcpoty-26-rlew |
| Kristian Campbell | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kristian-campbell-win-al-cpoty-kristian-campb-kalshi-kxmlbalcpoty-26-kcam |
| Zack Gelof | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zack-gelof-win-al-cpoty-zack-gelof-kalshi-kxmlbalcpoty-26-zgel |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tieco-winners-win-al-cpoty-tieco-winners-kalshi-kxmlbalcpoty-26-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 27 |
| 2026-04-25 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | 39 |
| 2026-05-07 | 39 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Yordan Alvarez +3pp 51→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment of Mike Trout winning the American League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 season. At 15%, the market implies significant skepticism about Trout's chances, likely reflecting uncertainty about his injury status, recovery trajectory, and whether he'll accumulate sufficient playing time to qualify for the award consideration. The main factors driving this low probability are the historical rarity of star players winning CPOTY and questions about whether Trout would be deemed the league's most impressive comeback story relative to other candidates. The resolution depends entirely on full-season performance metrics and voting outcomes by sports writers and official bodies following the 2026 MLB regular season in September-October 2026. Market participants would reassess based on spring training reports, early season performance data, and injury updates throughout the season.

### Key factors

- Mike Trout's actual playing time and availability during the 2026 regular season will directly affect his eligibility and award consideration
- The strength and narrative appeal of competing AL players' comeback stories will determine whether Trout's narrative ranks first among all candidates
- Official medical reports and team statements on Trout's health status and expected return timing will shift market expectations as the season progresses
- Voting criteria and historical voting patterns for the Comeback Player of the Year award may favor less prominent players or different recovery narratives
- Early-season statistical performance (if available) will provide concrete data on Trout's functional recovery rather than speculation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalcpoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbalcpoty

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.