# Will Tarik Skubal win AL Cy Young

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 7 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalcy
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.284Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Soriano | 4¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-jose-soriano-win-al-cy-young-jose-soriano-kalshi-kxmlbalcy-26-jsor |
| Cam Schlittler | 25¢ | +8pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-cam-schlittler-win-al-cy-young-cam-schlittler-kalshi-kxmlbalcy-26-csch |
| Jacob Degrom | 10¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-degrom-win-al-cy-young-jacob-degrom-kalshi-kxmlbalcy-26-jdeg |
| Max Fried | 14¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-max-fried-win-al-cy-young-max-fried-kalshi-kxmlbalcy-26-mfri |
| Tarik Skubal | 5¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-tarik-skubal-win-al-cy-young-tarik-skubal-kalshi-kxmlbalcy-26-tsku |
| Bryan Woo | 4¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-bryan-woo-win-al-cy-young-bryan-woo-kalshi-kxmlbalcy-26-bwoo |
| Dylan Cease | 16¢ | +4pp | $672 | kalshi | /markets/will-dylan-cease-win-al-cy-young-dylan-cease-kalshi-kxmlbalcy-26-dcea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | 3 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Tarik Skubal −17pp 20→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Jose Soriano −8pp 13→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Cam Schlittler +8pp 17→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Max Fried +7pp 9→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Jacob Degrom +6pp 2→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 9% chance that Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal wins the American League Cy Young Award, given to the league's best pitcher each season. The current low probability likely reflects Skubal's performance trajectory through early May and competition from other pitchers. The award is determined by voting after the regular season concludes in late September, with the winner announced in November. Performance metrics like ERA, wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched through the season's final week will directly influence voting outcomes. Early-season form often correlates with full-season success, though injuries, mid-season slumps, or breakout performances from competitors could significantly shift probabilities.

### Key factors

- Skubal's ERA and strikeout rate through May 2026 compared to other AL contenders
- Whether Skubal avoids significant injuries between May and September that could derail his candidacy
- Changes in his team's record and playoff positioning, which influence voter perception
- Emergence or decline of rival pitchers like Cam Schlittler (17¢) or other untracked candidates
- Voting recency bias typically favors strong September performances over early-season results

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalcy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbalcy

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.