# Will Tampa Bay be the 2026 AL East Division Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 5 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbaleast
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:05:56.054Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-15

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | 7¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-be-the-2026-al-east-division-winner-kalshi-kxmlbaleast-26-tb |
| Boston | 4¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-be-the-2026-al-east-division-winner-bo-kalshi-kxmlbaleast-26-bos |
| New York Y | 74¢ | −1pp | $917 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-be-the-2026-al-east-division-winne-kalshi-kxmlbaleast-26-nyy |
| Baltimore | 5¢ | +1pp | $232 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-be-the-2026-al-east-division-winner-kalshi-kxmlbaleast-26-bal |
| Toronto | 7¢ | −1pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-toronto-be-the-2026-al-east-division-winner-t-kalshi-kxmlbaleast-26-tor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 24 |
| 2026-04-19 | 33 |
| 2026-04-26 | 21 |
| 2026-05-03 | 28 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · New York Y +6pp 61→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · New York Y +5pp 65→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · New York Y −5pp 66→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · New York Y −4pp 70→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Baltimore −4pp 12→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Tampa Bay has a 20% chance of winning the 2026 AL East Division in Major League Baseball. The relatively low probability reflects the competitive strength of other AL East franchises and Tampa Bay's recent roster composition. Key drivers include Tampa Bay's ability to maintain competitive pitching and hitting performance through the season, and how their roster changes compare to division rivals like Baltimore, Boston, New York Yankees, and Toronto. The primary uncertainty resolves gradually throughout the 2026 MLB season, with critical waypoints occurring at the trade deadline (late July) and the final regular season standings in early October. Early-season performance and injury status of core players will provide the most important signals for updating this probability.

### Key factors

- Tampa Bay's current payroll and roster composition relative to other AL East teams entering 2026
- The team's pitching staff performance and injury history, particularly among starters
- Trade deadline activity and roster adjustments by Tampa Bay and competing AL East franchises
- Division rivals' roster strength and management decisions during the offseason and in-season
- Tampa Bay's actual win-loss record and games-behind metric at key checkpoints (May 31, July 31, and September 30)

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbaleast
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbaleast

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.