# Will Junior Caminero win AL Hank Aaron Award

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 14 contracts — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalhaaron
Updated: 2026-06-17T13:20:20.986Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $129

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | 7¢ | −1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-rice-win-al-hank-aaron-award-ben-rice-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-bric |
| Yordan Álvarez | 42¢ | −3pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-yordan-lvarez-win-al-hank-aaron-award-yordan-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-yalv |
| Aaron Judge | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-win-al-hank-aaron-award-aaron-jud-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-ajud |
| Brent Rooker | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brent-rooker-win-al-hank-aaron-award-brent-ro-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-broo |
| Cal Raleigh | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cal-raleigh-win-al-hank-aaron-award-cal-ralei-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-cral |
| Gunnar Henderson | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gunnar-henderson-win-al-hank-aaron-award-gunn-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-ghen |
| Junior Caminero | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-win-al-hank-aaron-award-junio-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-jcam |
| Julio Rodríguez | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-julio-rodrguez-win-al-hank-aaron-award-julio-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-jrod |
| Mike Trout | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-trout-win-al-hank-aaron-award-mike-trout-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-mtro |
| Nick Kurtz | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nick-kurtz-win-al-hank-aaron-award-nick-kurtz-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-nkur |
| Roman Anthony | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roman-anthony-win-al-hank-aaron-award-roman-a-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-rant |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bobby-witt-jr-win-al-hank-aaron-award-bobby-w-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-rwit |
| Wyatt Langford | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wyatt-langford-win-al-hank-aaron-award-wyatt-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-wlan |
| Zach Neto | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zach-neto-win-al-hank-aaron-award-zach-neto-kalshi-kxmlbalhaaron-26-znet |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 17 |
| 2026-06-03 | 21 |
| 2026-06-10 | 14 |
| 2026-06-17 | 19 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-15 · Yordan Álvarez +6pp 35→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-16 · Yordan Álvarez +4pp 41→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-17 · Nick Kurtz +4pp 5→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-17 · Yordan Álvarez −3pp 45→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-11 · Aaron Judge −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 9% probability reflects the betting market's assessment that Junior Caminero will be the American League's top hitter in 2026, as measured by the Hank Aaron Award voting. Caminero's current price sits well below front-runners like Aaron Judge (31%) and Shohei Ohtani (42% for the NL), suggesting limited confidence in his candidacy at this stage of the season. The probability would rise if Caminero establishes himself as a consistent offensive leader through mid-season performance metrics like batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The award determination occurs at season's end following the regular season's conclusion in early October, when voters assess full-year statistical performance. Between now and then, monthly performance trends, injury status of top contenders, and relative statistical accumulation will refine market expectations.

### Key factors

- Caminero's cumulative hitting statistics (batting average, OBP, slugging) through the 2026 season relative to other AL contenders
- Injury status and availability of higher-probability candidates like Aaron Judge and established offensive leaders
- The competitive landscape in the AL—whether scoring environment and roster quality favors certain players' statistical accumulation
- Caminero's age, experience level, and historical performance trajectory compared to voters' typical award-winning profiles
- The voting process timeline and any mid-season performance surges that shift market participant expectations in real-time

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalhaaron
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbalhaaron

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