# Will Ben Rice be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 44% across 19 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlballstar
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.437Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-15

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 13¢ | +4pp | $424 | kalshi | /markets/will-max-scherzer-be-selected-to-the-2026-al-all-s-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-mscherzer31 |
| Mookie Betts | 13¢ | +3pp | $375 | kalshi | /markets/will-mookie-betts-be-selected-to-the-2026-nl-all-s-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26nl-mbetts50 |
| Riley Greene | 34¢ | +10pp | $277 | kalshi | /markets/will-riley-greene-be-selected-to-the-2026-al-all-s-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-rgreene31 |
| José Ramírez | 50¢ | +6pp | $229 | kalshi | /markets/will-jos-ramrez-be-selected-to-the-2026-al-all-sta-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-jramrez11 |
| Max Muncy | 87¢ | −2pp | $161 | kalshi | /markets/will-max-muncy-be-selected-to-the-2026-nl-all-star-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26nl-mmuncy13 |
| Ernie Clement | 97¢ | +2pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-ernie-clement-be-selected-to-the-2026-al-all-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-eclement22 |
| Hunter Goodman | 11¢ | +5pp | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-hunter-goodman-be-selected-to-the-2026-nl-all-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26nl-hgoodman15 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 7¢ | — | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-ohearn-be-selected-to-the-2026-al-all-st-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-rohearn29 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 56¢ | +2pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-vladimir-guerrero-jr-be-selected-to-the-2026-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-vguerrero27 |
| Brice Turang | 61¢ | −17pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-brice-turang-be-selected-to-the-2026-nl-all-s-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26nl-bturang2 |
| Freddie Freeman | 67¢ | −14pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-freddie-freeman-be-selected-to-the-2026-nl-al-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26nl-ffreeman5 |
| Joe Ryan | 16¢ | −5pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-ryan-be-selected-to-the-2026-al-all-star-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-jryan41 |
| Drake Baldwin | 87¢ | ±0 | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-baldwin-be-selected-to-the-2026-nl-all-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26nl-dbaldwin30 |
| Miguel Vargas | 59¢ | +1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-miguel-vargas-be-selected-to-the-2026-al-all-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-mvargas20 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 6¢ | −15pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-jazz-chisholm-jr-be-selected-to-the-2026-al-a-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-jchisholm13 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 54¢ | +12pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-munetaka-murakami-be-selected-to-the-2026-al-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-mmurakami5 |
| Xavier Edwards | 31¢ | −13pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-xavier-edwards-be-selected-to-the-2026-nl-all-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26nl-xedwards9 |
| Kevin McGonigle | 45¢ | ±0 | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-kevin-mcgonigle-be-selected-to-the-2026-al-al-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26al-kmcgonigle85 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 49¢ | +19pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-ronald-acua-jr-be-selected-to-the-2026-nl-all-kalshi-kxmlballstar-26nl-racuna13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 52 |
| 2026-06-12 | 31 |
| 2026-06-19 | 47 |
| 2026-06-25 | 44 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Joe Ryan −42pp 44→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Drake Baldwin +42pp 44→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +35pp 4→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Joe Ryan +28pp 2→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. −24pp 27→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents an assessment that Ben Rice has a roughly two-in-three chance of being selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team. The probability reflects Rice's performance through the first half of the season and how his statistics compare to other AL designated hitters and backup catchers. All-Star selection depends on fan voting, player voting, and manager selections, weighted across these categories. The current level suggests Rice is positioned as a solid candidate but faces competition from established names. The main driver would be Rice's performance metrics—batting average, home runs, and overall offensive production—relative to other eligible AL players. The All-Star voting results, typically revealed in early July, will definitively resolve this market, making mid-season statistical accumulation the key factor before that announcement.

### Key factors

- Ben Rice's batting average, home run total, and RBI count through early-to-mid June compared to other AL catchers and DH candidates
- Fan voting patterns, which typically favor established stars and high-profile teams over newer or less familiar players
- Manager and player voting preferences, which can shift outcomes for borderline candidates depending on positional needs
- Competition level from other AL catchers and DH-eligible players—stronger competition from others would lower Rice's probability
- The official All-Star voting deadline and selection announcement, scheduled for early July, which will resolve the market with certainty

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlballstar
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlballstar

## License

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