# Will Mark Kotsay win AL MOTY

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 8 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalmoty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.002Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Cash | 29¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-kevin-cash-win-al-moty-kevin-cash-kalshi-kxmlbalmoty-26-kcas |
| Mark Kotsay | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-kotsay-win-al-moty-mark-kotsay-kalshi-kxmlbalmoty-26-mkot |
| Craig Albernaz | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-craig-albernaz-win-al-moty-craig-albernaz-kalshi-kxmlbalmoty-26-calb |
| A.J. Hinch | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aj-hinch-win-al-moty-aj-hinch-kalshi-kxmlbalmoty-26-ahin |
| Matt Quatraro | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-quatraro-win-al-moty-matt-quatraro-kalshi-kxmlbalmoty-26-mqua |
| Kurt Suzuki | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kurt-suzuki-win-al-moty-kurt-suzuki-kalshi-kxmlbalmoty-26-ksuz |
| Derek Shelton | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-derek-shelton-win-al-moty-derek-shelton-kalshi-kxmlbalmoty-26-dshe |
| Dan Wilson | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dan-wilson-win-al-moty-dan-wilson-kalshi-kxmlbalmoty-26-dwil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 4 |
| 2026-04-25 | 5 |
| 2026-05-02 | 6 |
| 2026-05-08 | 16 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Mark Kotsay −5pp 21→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Kevin Cash +4pp 11→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Kevin Cash +3pp 8→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 6% probability represents the market's assessment that Mark Kotsay will be named the American League Manager of the Year for the 2026 season. At this level, Kotsay is considered a long-shot candidate relative to other contenders. The probability reflects either that his team is not currently positioned for strong performance, or that other managers have stronger narratives or résumés for the award. The key drivers would be his team's win-loss record and playoff positioning relative to other AL teams, the individual performances of other managers' rosters, and any notable midseason improvements or storylines. The award will be determined after the regular season concludes in late September 2026, when voters select the winner based on managerial performance and team success. Between now and then, team performance, injury situations, and coaching decisions will shape perceptions of his candidacy relative to competitors like Walt Weiss in the NL.

### Key factors

- Kotsay's team's current standings and remaining schedule relative to other AL contenders seeking playoff positions
- Comparative strength of narratives for other AL manager candidates based on team performance and circumstances
- Whether Kotsay's team experiences significant mid-season performance changes (winning streaks, playoff positioning shifts) that alter voter perceptions
- Injury or personnel changes that could affect his team's trajectory and his strategic impact for the remainder of the season
- Regular season conclusion in late September 2026, when final records determine voting pool and narratives crystallize

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalmoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbalmoty

## License

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