# Will Nick Kurtz win AL MVP

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalmvp
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:37.981Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 46¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-judge-win-al-mvp-aaron-judge-kalshi-kxmlbalmvp-26-ajud |
| Yordan Álvarez | 14¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-yordan-lvarez-win-al-mvp-yordan-lvarez-kalshi-kxmlbalmvp-26-yalv |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 9¢ | +1pp | $662 | kalshi | /markets/will-bobby-witt-jr-win-al-mvp-bobby-witt-jr-kalshi-kxmlbalmvp-26-rwit |
| Ben Rice | 6¢ | +4pp | $504 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-rice-win-al-mvp-ben-rice-kalshi-kxmlbalmvp-26-bric |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vladimir-guerrero-jr-win-al-mvp-vladimir-guer-kalshi-kxmlbalmvp-26-vgue |
| Nick Kurtz | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nick-kurtz-win-al-mvp-nick-kurtz-kalshi-kxmlbalmvp-26-nkur |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 19 |
| 2026-04-25 | 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 11 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Yordan Álvarez −9pp 19→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Aaron Judge +7pp 37→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Yordan Álvarez −5pp 24→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Ben Rice +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market assessment that Nick Kurtz has a 12% chance of winning the American League MVP award in the 2026 baseball season. The relatively modest probability suggests that while Kurtz is considered a viable candidate, the market views other players as more likely frontrunners. Key drivers of this level include Kurtz's offensive performance through the early season, his team's overall competitiveness, and how his statistics compare to other AL contenders. As the season progresses through May and into the summer months, MVP probability will shift based on accumulated offensive production (batting average, home runs, RBIs, WAR), injury status of Kurtz and competing candidates, and team performance in the standings. The MVP award typically reflects both individual excellence and team success, so the trajectory of his team's win-loss record will be a significant factor. The formal MVP voting occurs in November after the season concludes, though market prices will adjust continuously based on emerging performance data.

### Key factors

- Kurtz's year-to-date offensive statistics (batting average, home runs, RBIs, OPS) compared to other AL MVP contenders
- His team's current record and playoff positioning relative to other AL teams
- Injury status and availability of Kurtz and other top MVP candidates throughout the season
- Changes to Kurtz's role or playing time that would affect his season accumulation totals
- Historical voting patterns showing whether voters prioritize individual statistics or team success more heavily

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalmvp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbalmvp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.