# Will Josh Hader win AL Reliever of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 18 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalreloty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.504Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | 12¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cade-smith-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-cade-s-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-csmi |
| Aroldis Chapman | 9¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aroldis-chapman-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-a-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-acha |
| Carlos Estevez | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carlos-estevez-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-ca-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-cest |
| Andres Muñoz | 10¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andres-muoz-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-andre-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-amun |
| Jeff Hoffman | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeff-hoffman-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-jeff-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-jhof |
| Josh Hader | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-hader-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-josh-h-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-jhad |
| David Bednar | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-bednar-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-davi-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-dbed |
| Kyle Finnegan | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-finnegan-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-kyl-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-kfin |
| Kenley Jansen | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kenley-jansen-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-ken-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-kjan |
| Will Vest | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-will-vest-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-will-ve-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-wves |
| Kirby Yates | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kirby-yates-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-kirby-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-kyat |
| Taylor Rogers | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-rogers-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-tay-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-trod |
| Robert Garcia | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-garcia-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-rob-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-rgar |
| Jordan Leasure | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-leasure-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-jo-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-jlea |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-leiter-jr-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-ma-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-mlei |
| Bryan Abreu | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryan-abreu-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-bryan-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-babr |
| Grant Taylor | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-grant-taylor-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-gran-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-gtay |
| Robert Stephenson | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-stephenson-win-al-reliever-of-the-year-kalshi-kxmlbalreloty-26-rste |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 7 |
| 2026-04-25 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 14 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Aroldis Chapman −6pp 20→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 6% chance that Josh Hader wins the American League Reliever of the Year award for the 2026 MLB season. Hader's probability reflects his status as an elite reliever but also acknowledges strong competition in a deep AL bullpen class. The award typically goes to pitchers with both dominant statistics (ERA, strikeout rate, saves) and significant innings pitched during the regular season. Hader's chances would increase with exceptional performance metrics through September or if key competitors experience injury or decline. The outcome will be determined by year-end MLB award voting, with results typically announced in November following the regular season's conclusion.

### Key factors

- Hader's earned run average, strikeout rate, and saves total through the 2026 regular season relative to other AL relievers
- Injury status and availability of competing elite AL relievers (Clase, King, Lorenzen, Rodon, and others) throughout the season
- Total innings pitched and game-save opportunities, since award voters typically favor relievers with substantial workload
- Voting pattern trends for the Reliever of the Year award, which historically favors pitchers with sub-2.50 ERA and 40+ saves
- Hader's team's postseason performance, as voters sometimes consider playoff success when evaluating relief pitchers

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalreloty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbalreloty

## License

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