# Will Samuel Basallo win AL ROTY

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 8 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalroty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.336Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter | 12¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-delauter-win-al-roty-chase-delauter-kalshi-kxmlbalroty-26-cdel |
| Munetaka Murakami | 38¢ | −7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-munetaka-murakami-win-al-roty-munetaka-muraka-kalshi-kxmlbalroty-26-mmur |
| Trey Yesavage | 3¢ | +1pp | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-trey-yesavage-win-al-roty-trey-yesavage-kalshi-kxmlbalroty-26-tyes |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 6¢ | ±0 | $309 | kalshi | /markets/will-kazuma-okamoto-win-al-roty-kazuma-okamoto-kalshi-kxmlbalroty-26-koka |
| Kevin McGonigle | 38¢ | +2pp | $246 | kalshi | /markets/will-kevin-mcgonigle-win-al-roty-kevin-mcgonigle-kalshi-kxmlbalroty-26-kmcg |
| Spencer Jones Jr. | 3¢ | — | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-spencer-jones-jr-win-al-roty-spencer-jones-jr-kalshi-kxmlbalroty-26-sjon |
| Lazaro Montes | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lazaro-montes-win-al-roty-lazaro-montes-kalshi-kxmlbalroty-26-lmon |
| Hagen Smith | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hagen-smith-win-al-roty-hagen-smith-kalshi-kxmlbalroty-26-hsmi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 25 |
| 2026-04-25 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | 29 |
| 2026-05-08 | 35 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Munetaka Murakami −7pp 38→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Kazuma Okamoto +5pp 2→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Kevin McGonigle −5pp 38→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Munetaka Murakami +4pp 32→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Chase DeLauter +3pp 9→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Samuel Basallo's 14% probability reflects market expectations that he will not win the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2026. The market is pricing in competition from other highly-regarded prospects, particularly Kevin McGonigle (40%) and Munetaka Murakami (38%), suggesting Basallo faces significant headwinds despite being in contention. His probability would rise if he demonstrates sustained performance metrics—batting average, on-base percentage, and power numbers—that outpace competing rookies through the season. Conversely, injuries, performance decline, or breakthrough performances by other candidates could lower his odds. The outcome will be determined by year-end statistical comparisons and voting by the Baseball Writers' Association, making mid-season performance data points the key catalyst for probability shifts.

### Key factors

- McGonigle and Murakami are currently priced nearly 3x higher, indicating market consensus views them as more likely winners
- Basallo's win probability implies approximately 1-in-7 odds, positioning him outside the top two contenders but not eliminated
- Year-to-date performance statistics (batting average, slugging percentage, WAR, plate appearances) will be primary determinants of voting consideration
- Playing time and injury status throughout the season are critical—ROTY voters typically require substantial major league service time
- BBWAA voting typically weights overall offensive production and defensive performance, not just raw talent or prospect rankings

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbalroty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbalroty

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.