# Will Shohei Ohtani be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 18 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbawardfin
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.099Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $536

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 75¢ | +3pp | $255 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-sale-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlcy-csale51 |
| Dillon Dingler | 25¢ | +4pp | $166 | kalshi | /markets/will-dillon-dingler-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26almvp-ddingler13 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 7¢ | +2pp | $115 | kalshi | /markets/will-drew-rasmussen-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26alcy-drasmussen57 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 94¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-t-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlmvp-sohtani17 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 94¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-crow-armstrong-be-selected-as-a-finalist-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlmvp-pcrowarmstrong4 |
| Matt Olson | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-olson-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlmvp-molson28 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 15¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elly-de-la-cruz-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlmvp-edelacruz44 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 89¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-misiorowski-be-selected-as-a-finalist-f-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlcy-jmisiorowski32 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 80¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristopher-snchez-be-selected-as-a-finalist-f-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlcy-csanchez61 |
| Mason Miller | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mason-miller-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-th-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlcy-mmiller22 |
| Paul Skenes | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-skenes-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlcy-pskenes30 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yoshinobu-yamamoto-be-selected-as-a-finalist-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlcy-yyamamoto18 |
| Chase Burns | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chase-burns-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlcy-cburns26 |
| Jesús Luzardo | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jess-luzardo-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-th-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26nlcy-jluzardo44 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ceddanne-rafaela-be-selected-as-a-finalist-fo-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26almvp-crafaela3 |
| Gavin Williams | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-williams-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26alcy-gwilliams32 |
| Parker Messick | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-parker-messick-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26alcy-pmessick77 |
| Bryan Woo | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryan-woo-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-p-kalshi-kxmlbawardfin-26alcy-bwoo22 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 60 |
| 2026-08-07 | 46 |
| 2026-08-08 | 37 |
| 2026-08-09 | 26 |
| 2026-08-10 | 50 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-07 · Parker Messick +17pp 28→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Chris Sale +7pp 64→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Dillon Dingler −5pp 26→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Dillon Dingler +4pp 21→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Pete Crow-Armstrong +4pp 91→95¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated chance that Shohei Ohtani will reach the final three finalists for the 2026 National League MVP award. Currently priced at 38%, the assessment balances Ohtani's demonstrated elite performance capabilities against the inherent unpredictability of award voting and the strength of competing candidates. MVP voting depends on seasonal performance metrics, narrative strength, and voter preferences that shift annually. The key variable is Ohtani's health and production level during the 2026 season—injuries or underperformance would significantly lower finalists chances, while an exceptional year would increase them. The resolution occurs in November 2026 when baseball writers cast their MVP votes and the finalists are announced. Ohtani's career trajectory, team performance, and media narrative throughout the season will substantially influence whether he achieves finalist status.

### Key factors

- Ohtani's 2026 seasonal statistics (batting average, home runs, WAR, games played) compared to other NL position players—health directly impacts eligibility
- Team playoff performance and relevance; players on successful teams typically receive stronger MVP consideration from voters
- Strength of competing MVP candidates in the NL that year; depth of elite talent in the league affects threshold for finalist selection
- Ohtani's historical voting patterns and name recognition; prior recognition may influence voter behavior in 2026
- Award voting timeline occurs post-season in November 2026; finalist announcement represents the concrete resolution point

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbawardfin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbawardfin

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