# Will Atlanta have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 4 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbbestrecord
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:50.189Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-29

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles D | 36¢ | −18pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-have-the-best-record-in-pro-bas-kalshi-kxmlbbestrecord-26-lad |
| New York Y | 15¢ | ±0 | $811 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-have-the-best-record-in-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbbestrecord-26-nyy |
| Atlanta | 17¢ | +5pp | $228 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-have-the-best-record-in-pro-baseball-kalshi-kxmlbbestrecord-26-atl |
| Detroit | 6¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-have-the-best-record-in-pro-baseball-kalshi-kxmlbbestrecord-26-det |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 34 |
| 2026-04-19 | 37 |
| 2026-04-26 | 25 |
| 2026-05-03 | 18 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Los Angeles D −18pp 46→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Los Angeles D −8pp 54→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Atlanta +7pp 10→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · New York Y +6pp 6→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Los Angeles D −5pp 59→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The Atlanta Braves have a 19% estimated probability of finishing the 2026 MLB regular season with the best record. This represents market expectations that while the Braves remain competitive, other teams—particularly the Los Angeles Dodgers (29%) and New York Yankees (14%)—are viewed as more likely to secure the top record. The probability reflects the Braves' recent competitive performance balanced against uncertainty about player health, roster changes, and divisional competition. The market will gradually resolve this question through the course of the 2026 season, with final outcomes determined when the regular season concludes in late September. Key catalysts include preseason transactions, opening day roster construction, and performance trends through April and May that will indicate whether Atlanta maintains championship-caliber strength.

### Key factors

- Atlanta's year-to-date performance and win-loss record relative to other AL/NL contenders through May 2026
- Player availability and health status, particularly for key position players and starting pitchers on the Braves roster
- Los Angeles Dodgers' market probability of 29% indicates the market favors them significantly; Atlanta must outpace them in actual wins
- Divisional competition within the NL East and overall strength of schedule remaining in the 2026 season
- Trade deadline activity and roster adjustments across MLB in late July that could shift competitive balance

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbbestrecord
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbbestrecord

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.