# Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbdebut-jdepaula
Updated: 2026-09-13T19:20:51.562Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2028-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before May 1, 2027 at 97%
- Runner-up: Before Nov 1, 2026 at 97%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2027 | 97¢ | +5pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-josue-de-paula-play-in-a-game-for-any-team-in-kalshi-kxmlbdebut-jdepaula-27may01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 97¢ | +82pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-josue-de-paula-play-in-a-game-for-any-team-in-kalshi-kxmlbdebut-jdepaula-26nov01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 96¢ | +38pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-josue-de-paula-play-in-a-game-for-any-team-in-kalshi-kxmlbdebut-jdepaula-27aug01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2027 | 95¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josue-de-paula-play-in-a-game-for-any-team-in-kalshi-kxmlbdebut-jdepaula-27nov01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 95¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josue-de-paula-play-in-a-game-for-any-team-in-kalshi-kxmlbdebut-jdepaula-28aug01 |
| Before May 1, 2028 | 95¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josue-de-paula-play-in-a-game-for-any-team-in-kalshi-kxmlbdebut-jdepaula-28may01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2028 | 95¢ | +45pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josue-de-paula-play-in-a-game-for-any-team-in-kalshi-kxmlbdebut-jdepaula-28nov01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before May 1, 2027 | Before Nov 1, 2026 | Before Aug 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 26 | 13 | 47 |
| 2026-09-04 | 25 | 13 | 48 |
| 2026-09-06 | — | — | 49 |
| 2026-09-10 | 92 | 95 | 87 |
| 2026-09-11 | 97 | — | — |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 86% probability indicates market participants believe De Paula will play in an MLB game by November 2028, though the much lower prices on earlier dates (6% by May 2027, 7% by August 2027) suggest uncertainty about near-term timing. The probability reflects De Paula's current status in professional baseball development—likely a minor league prospect—and the typical pathway to MLB debut. Key drivers include his progression through the minor league system, organizational depth at his position, and availability of roster spots. The primary uncertainty resolver will be roster decisions during spring training and early-season MLB operations, particularly around roster expansion or injury replacements that might accelerate or delay debut opportunities.

### Key factors

- The steep discount on near-term contracts (6% for May 2027) versus the long-term outlook (86% by Nov 2028) suggests De Paula has not yet been called to MLB but has reasonable long-term prospect status
- Minor league development timelines typically span 2-5 years; De Paula would need to progress through multiple levels and outcompete organizational competition for a roster spot
- Spring training rosters and early-season injury replacements between June 2026 and May 2027 represent the most likely near-term MLB debut catalysts
- MLB roster composition and organizational needs at De Paula's position will directly influence whether a debut occurs before late 2028 versus later years
- The minimal trading volume on most contracts suggests limited market liquidity and potential uncertainty about De Paula's current professional status or visibility

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbdebut-jdepaula
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbdebut-jdepaula

## License

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