# Will Jackson Flora be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 17 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbdraftpick
Updated: 2026-05-09T12:50:50.546Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-21

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $458

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roch Cholowsky | 51¢ | +4pp | $433 | kalshi | /markets/will-roch-cholowsky-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-baseb-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-1-rcho |
| Grady Emerson | 32¢ | ±0 | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-grady-emerson-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-1-geme |
| Vahn Lackey | 3¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-vahn-lackey-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-baseball-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-1-vlac |
| Vahn Lackey | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vahn-lackey-be-picked-5th-in-the-pro-baseball-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-5-vlac |
| Jackson Flora | 29¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jackson-flora-be-picked-5th-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-5-jflo |
| Eric Booth Jr. | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eric-booth-jr-be-picked-5th-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-5-eboo |
| Jacob Lombard | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-lombard-be-picked-5th-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-5-jlom |
| Vahn Lackey | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vahn-lackey-be-picked-4th-in-the-pro-baseball-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-4-vlac |
| Jackson Flora | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jackson-flora-be-picked-4th-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-4-jflo |
| Jacob Lombard | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-lombard-be-picked-4th-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-4-jlom |
| Grady Emerson | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-grady-emerson-be-picked-3rd-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-3-geme |
| Vahn Lackey | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vahn-lackey-be-picked-3rd-in-the-pro-baseball-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-3-vlac |
| Jackson Flora | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jackson-flora-be-picked-3rd-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-3-jflo |
| Justin Lebron | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-lebron-be-picked-3rd-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-3-jleb |
| Jacob Lombard | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-lombard-be-picked-3rd-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-3-jlom |
| Roch Cholowsky | 35¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roch-cholowsky-be-picked-2nd-in-the-pro-baseb-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-2-rcho |
| Grady Emerson | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-grady-emerson-be-picked-2nd-in-the-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbdraftpick-26-2-geme |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 27 |
| 2026-05-09 | 29 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Roch Cholowsky +4pp 48→52¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbdraftpick
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbdraftpick

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.