# Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 18 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbeoty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.077Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Frost | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-frost-win-executive-of-the-year-david-f-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-dfro |
| Alex Anthopoulos | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-anthopoulos-win-executive-of-the-year-al-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-aant |
| Mike Elias | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-elias-win-executive-of-the-year-mike-eli-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-meli |
| Carter Hawkins | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carter-hawkins-win-executive-of-the-year-cart-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-chaw |
| Chris Getz | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-getz-win-executive-of-the-year-chris-ge-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-cget |
| Brad Meador | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brad-meador-win-executive-of-the-year-brad-me-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-bmea |
| Josh Byrnes | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-byrnes-win-executive-of-the-year-josh-by-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-jbyr |
| J. J. Picollo | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-j-j-picollo-win-executive-of-the-year-j-j-pic-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-jpic |
| Perry Minasian | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-perry-minasian-win-executive-of-the-year-perr-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-pmin |
| Brandon Gomes | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brandon-gomes-win-executive-of-the-year-brand-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-bgom |
| Matt Arnold | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-arnold-win-executive-of-the-year-matt-ar-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-marn |
| David Stearns | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-stearns-win-executive-of-the-year-david-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-dste |
| Ben Cherington | 15¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-cherington-win-executive-of-the-year-ben-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-bche |
| A. J. Preller | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-j-preller-win-executive-of-the-year-a-j-pre-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-apre |
| Mike Girsch | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-girsch-win-executive-of-the-year-mike-gi-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-mgir |
| Ross Fenstermaker | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ross-fenstermaker-win-executive-of-the-year-r-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-rfen |
| Ross Atkins | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ross-atkins-win-executive-of-the-year-ross-at-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-ratk |
| Anirudh Kilambi | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anirudh-kilambi-win-executive-of-the-year-ani-kalshi-kxmlbeoty-26-akil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 5 |
| 2026-04-11 | 3 |
| 2026-04-13 | 6 |
| 2026-04-19 | 5 |
| 2026-04-21 | 6 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Carter Hawkins will be named Executive of the Year in 2026. At 6%, the market suggests Hawkins is considered a long-shot candidate relative to other tracked executives. The low probability likely reflects limited visibility into his recent performance metrics or comparative standing against better-established executives in the same year. Movement in this probability would depend on major announcements, promotions, or public recognition of significant business accomplishments that distinguish Hawkins from competitors. The resolution hinges on which organization issues the Executive of the Year award and their selection criteria, with the award announcement date serving as the key catalyst for determining the outcome.

### Key factors

- Carter Hawkins' current executive position and scope of responsibility compared to other 2026 award candidates
- Public announcements or business results attributed to Hawkins between now and the award announcement that would affect his competitive standing
- Which Executive of the Year award is being referenced (industry-specific, regional, or national), as different awarding bodies use different selection criteria
- The timing and visibility of the award announcement relative to Hawkins' most recent notable achievements or decisions
- Historical patterns showing whether career trajectory, tenure, or specific accomplishments most influence Executive of the Year selections for the referenced award

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbeoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbeoty

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