# Chicago WS wins first 5 innings by over 2.5 runs

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbf5spread
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:28.365Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-13

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $543

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta -1.5 first 5 innings | 17¢ | +10pp | $150 | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-atlan-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may092110atllad-atl2 |
| Texas -1.5 first 5 innings | 22¢ | +10pp | $121 | kalshi | /markets/texas-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-texas-1-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091905chctex-tex2 |
| Los Angeles D -1.5 first 5 innings | 40¢ | +19pp | $71 | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-d-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may092110atllad-lad2 |
| Chicago C -1.5 first 5 innings | 31¢ | +16pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-c-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-chi-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091905chctex-chc2 |
| Houston -1.5 first 5 innings | 18¢ | +9pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/houston-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-houst-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091610houcin-hou2 |
| Toronto -1.5 first 5 innings | 34¢ | +20pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/toronto-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-toron-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091507laator-tor2 |
| Chicago C -2.5 first 5 innings | 21¢ | +9pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-c-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-25-runs-chi-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091905chctex-chc3 |
| Milwaukee -1.5 first 5 innings | 16¢ | +9pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/milwaukee-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-mil-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091910nyymil-mil2 |
| Colorado -1.5 first 5 innings | 19¢ | +10pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/colorado-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-colo-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091805colphi-col2 |
| Philadelphia -2.5 first 5 innings | 21¢ | +11pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/philadelphia-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-25-runs-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091805colphi-phi3 |
| St. Louis -1.5 first 5 innings | 24¢ | +10pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/st-louis-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-st-l-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091915stlsd-stl2 |
| Seattle -1.5 first 5 innings | 29¢ | +17pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/seattle-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-seatt-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091910seacws-sea2 |
| Los Angeles D -2.5 first 5 innings | 20¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-d-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-25-runs-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may092110atllad-lad3 |
| Atlanta -2.5 first 5 innings | 9¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-25-runs-atlan-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may092110atllad-atl3 |
| San Francisco -2.5 first 5 innings | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/san-francisco-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-25-runs-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may092105pitsf-sf3 |
| San Francisco -1.5 first 5 innings | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/san-francisco-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may092105pitsf-sf2 |
| Pittsburgh -1.5 first 5 innings | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pittsburgh-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-pi-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may092105pitsf-pit2 |
| Pittsburgh -2.5 first 5 innings | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/pittsburgh-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-25-runs-pi-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may092105pitsf-pit3 |
| San Diego -2.5 first 5 innings | 16¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-25-runs-san-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091915stlsd-sd3 |
| San Diego -1.5 first 5 innings | 27¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-wins-first-5-innings-by-over-15-runs-san-kalshi-kxmlbf5spread-26may091915stlsd-sd2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 2 |
| 2026-05-09 | 14 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Toronto -1.5 first 5 innings +20pp 3→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Los Angeles D -1.5 first 5 innings +19pp 2→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Seattle -1.5 first 5 innings +17pp 2→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Chicago C -1.5 first 5 innings +16pp 3→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · San Diego -1.5 first 5 innings +14pp 2→16¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbf5spread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbf5spread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.