# Los Angeles D vs San Francisco Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 52% across 20 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbgame
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:21.361Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 52% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1.5M

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Y | 68¢ | +2pp | $278K | kalshi | /markets/baltimore-vs-new-york-y-winner-new-york-y-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031335balnyy-nyy |
| Los Angeles D | 57¢ | +2pp | $176K | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-d-vs-st-louis-winner-los-angeles-d-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031415ladstl-lad |
| Toronto | 50¢ | ±0 | $165K | kalshi | /markets/toronto-vs-minnesota-winner-toronto-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031245tormin-tor |
| Tampa Bay | 54¢ | +4pp | $132K | kalshi | /markets/san-francisco-vs-tampa-bay-winner-tampa-bay-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031340sftb-tb |
| Milwaukee | 55¢ | ±0 | $103K | kalshi | /markets/milwaukee-vs-washington-winner-milwaukee-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031335milwsh-mil |
| Atlanta | 60¢ | +4pp | $95K | kalshi | /markets/atlanta-vs-colorado-winner-atlanta-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031510atlcol-atl |
| Pittsburgh | 52¢ | +1pp | $90K | kalshi | /markets/cincinnati-vs-pittsburgh-winner-pittsburgh-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031335cinpit-pit |
| Cincinnati | 48¢ | +2pp | $76K | kalshi | /markets/cincinnati-vs-pittsburgh-winner-cincinnati-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031335cinpit-cin |
| St. Louis | 42¢ | ±0 | $70K | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-d-vs-st-louis-winner-st-louis-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031415ladstl-stl |
| Chicago C | 59¢ | +1pp | $52K | kalshi | /markets/arizona-vs-chicago-c-winner-chicago-c-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031420azchc-chc |
| Philadelphia | 56¢ | +4pp | $50K | kalshi | /markets/philadelphia-vs-miami-winner-philadelphia-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031340phimia-phi |
| Minnesota | 50¢ | +3pp | $42K | kalshi | /markets/toronto-vs-minnesota-winner-minnesota-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031245tormin-min |
| Miami | 43¢ | −3pp | $38K | kalshi | /markets/philadelphia-vs-miami-winner-miami-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031340phimia-mia |
| Chicago WS | 37¢ | +2pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/chicago-ws-vs-san-diego-winner-chicago-ws-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031610cwssd-cws |
| Cleveland | 52¢ | +4pp | $27K | kalshi | /markets/cleveland-vs-as-winner-cleveland-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031605cleath-cle |
| Boston | 59¢ | +3pp | $25K | kalshi | /markets/houston-vs-boston-winner-boston-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031335houbos-bos |
| San Diego | 62¢ | ±0 | $20K | kalshi | /markets/chicago-ws-vs-san-diego-winner-san-diego-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031610cwssd-sd |
| Seattle | 52¢ | −1pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/kansas-city-vs-seattle-winner-seattle-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031610kcsea-sea |
| Washington | 44¢ | −1pp | $16K | kalshi | /markets/milwaukee-vs-washington-winner-washington-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031335milwsh-wsh |
| Kansas City | 47¢ | +1pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/kansas-city-vs-seattle-winner-kansas-city-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031610kcsea-kc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 44 |
| 2026-05-01 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 51 |
| 2026-05-03 | 53 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Tampa Bay +20pp 28→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · San Diego +15pp 44→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Toronto +14pp 37→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Atlanta +14pp 45→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Minnesota +8pp 37→45¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbgame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.