# Will Cody Bellinger win the AL Gold Glove for Left Field in the 2026 season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 6 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbgg
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:52.929Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 3¢ | +1pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-fernando-tatis-jr-win-the-nl-gold-glove-for-r-kalshi-kxmlbgg-26nlrf-ftatis23 |
| Alex Bregman | 51¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-bregman-win-the-nl-gold-glove-for-third-kalshi-kxmlbgg-26nl3b-abregman3 |
| Caleb Durbin | 76¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-durbin-win-the-al-gold-glove-for-third-kalshi-kxmlbgg-26al3b-cdurbin17 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4¢ | −2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-ceddanne-rafaela-win-the-al-gold-glove-for-ce-kalshi-kxmlbgg-26alcf-crafaela3 |
| Chicago C | 88¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-c-win-the-nl-gold-glove-for-team-in-t-kalshi-kxmlbgg-26nlteam-chc |
| Masyn Winn | 14¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-masyn-winn-win-the-nl-gold-glove-for-shortsto-kalshi-kxmlbgg-26nlss-mwinn0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 37 |
| 2026-09-07 | 62 |
| 2026-09-12 | 80 |
| 2026-09-19 | 30 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Caleb Durbin −83pp 89→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Ceddanne Rafaela −83pp 86→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Caleb Durbin +71pp 6→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Masyn Winn −63pp 66→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Alex Bregman −36pp 81→45¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 6% probability that Cody Bellinger will win the AL Gold Glove for Left Field in 2026, reflecting the consensus view of traders on Kalshi. Bellinger, who plays for the Houston Astros, would need to substantially outperform other AL left fielders in defensive metrics—primarily fielding percentage, range factor, and visual defensive plays—to win the award. The Gold Glove voting occurs after the regular season ends and accounts for both objective defensive statistics and subjective evaluation by players, coaches, and media. The probability suggests voters see stronger defensive candidates at the position, though Bellinger's placement on a contending team could factor into voting. This resolves in late October 2026 when voters announce their picks.

### Key factors

- Bellinger's defensive statistics in 2026 (fielding percentage, errors, range factor) compared to competitors like Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, or other leading AL left fielders
- Voting patterns from players, coaches, and media in previous Gold Glove elections and their historical weighting of advanced metrics versus traditional statistics
- Whether the Astros' competitive standing influences voter perception of individual players, given that award voting sometimes correlates with team success
- Bellinger's recent defensive performance trends and durability—Gold Glove voters typically prioritize players with consistent playing time over a full season
- The depth and quality of competing candidates at AL left field and whether a consensus favorite emerges by season's end

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbgg
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbgg

## License

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