# Nick Kurtz: 1+ home runs

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 15 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhr
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.507Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-11

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ home runs?: Pete Alonso: 1+ | 21¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/pete-alonso-1-home-runs-pete-alonso-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may091605athbal-balpalonso25-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Aaron Judge: 1+ | 26¢ | — | $993 | kalshi | /markets/aaron-judge-1-home-runs-aaron-judge-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may091910nyymil-nyyajudge99-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Yordan Alvarez: 1+ | 24¢ | — | $476 | kalshi | /markets/yordan-alvarez-1-home-runs-yordan-alvarez-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may091610houcin-houyalvarez44-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Rafael Devers: 1+ | 12¢ | — | $428 | kalshi | /markets/rafael-devers-1-home-runs-rafael-devers-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may092105pitsf-sfrdevers16-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Shohei Ohtani: 1+ | 23¢ | — | $320 | kalshi | /markets/shohei-ohtani-1-home-runs-shohei-ohtani-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may092110atllad-ladsohtani17-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Freddie Freeman: 1+ | 16¢ | — | $245 | kalshi | /markets/freddie-freeman-1-home-runs-freddie-freeman-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may092110atllad-ladffreeman5-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Kyle Tucker: 1+ | 14¢ | — | $195 | kalshi | /markets/kyle-tucker-1-home-runs-kyle-tucker-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may092110atllad-ladktucker23-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Julio Rodríguez: 1+ | 15¢ | — | $190 | kalshi | /markets/julio-rodrguez-1-home-runs-julio-rodrguez-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may091910seacws-seajrodrguez44-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Alex Bregman: 1+ | 11¢ | — | $163 | kalshi | /markets/alex-bregman-1-home-runs-alex-bregman-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may091905chctex-chcabregman3-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Randy Arozarena: 1+ | 12¢ | — | $111 | kalshi | /markets/randy-arozarena-1-home-runs-randy-arozarena-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may091910seacws-seararozarena56-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Matt Olson: 1+ | 17¢ | — | $104 | kalshi | /markets/matt-olson-1-home-runs-matt-olson-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may092110atllad-atlmolson28-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Juan Soto: 1+ | 21¢ | — | $74 | kalshi | /markets/juan-soto-1-home-runs-juan-soto-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may091915nymaz-nymjsoto22-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Cal Raleigh: 1+ | 20¢ | — | $70 | kalshi | /markets/cal-raleigh-1-home-runs-cal-raleigh-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may091910seacws-seacraleigh29-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: José Ramírez: 1+ | 15¢ | — | $50 | kalshi | /markets/jos-ramrez-1-home-runs-jos-ramrez-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may091810mincle-clejramrez11-1 |
| 1+ home runs?: Nick Kurtz: 1+ | 22¢ | — | $40 | kalshi | /markets/nick-kurtz-1-home-runs-nick-kurtz-1-kalshi-kxmlbhr-26may091605athbal-athnkurtz16-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 13 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbhr

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.