# Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 Home Run Derby

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 8 contracts — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhrderby
Updated: 2026-07-12T22:20:49.354Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $146K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | 17¢ | −5pp | $24K | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-win-the-2026-home-run-derby-j-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby-26-jcaminero13 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 21¢ | −6pp | $23K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-win-the-2026-home-run-derby-ky-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby-26-kschwarber12 |
| Willson Contreras | 4¢ | +2pp | $22K | kalshi | /markets/will-willson-contreras-win-the-2026-home-run-derby-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby-26-wcontreras40 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 15¢ | — | $21K | kalshi | /markets/will-munetaka-murakami-win-the-2026-home-run-derby-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby-26-mmurakami5 |
| Jac Caglianone | 12¢ | +7pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-jac-caglianone-win-the-2026-home-run-derby-ja-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby-26-jcaglianone14 |
| Bryce Harper | 9¢ | −1pp | $17K | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-harper-win-the-2026-home-run-derby-bryc-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby-26-bharper3 |
| Ben Rice | 9¢ | +2pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-rice-win-the-2026-home-run-derby-ben-rice-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby-26-brice22 |
| Jordan Walker | 12¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-walker-win-the-2026-home-run-derby-jor-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby-26-jwalker18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 12 |
| 2026-07-11 | 12 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-11 · Jac Caglianone +7pp 7→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Kyle Schwarber −6pp 24→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Junior Caminero −5pp 20→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 13% probability reflects market expectations that Contreras has roughly a 1-in-8 chance of winning the 2026 Home Run Derby. Contreras is a catcher with solid power credentials but faces competition from younger, prolific home run hitters like Kyle Schwarber (21% implied probability) and Junior Caminero (16%). Market participants appear to be pricing in both Contreras's demonstrated power and his position as a catcher, which typically limits at-bats and homer frequency compared to everyday position players. The outcome will be determined by the official Derby bracket announcement and participant selection, likely occurring in early July of the All-Star break period, combined with actual performance during the competition itself.

### Key factors

- Contreras averaged 19 home runs per 162 games in recent seasons, below the rate of leading contenders like Schwarber, suggesting power is a limiting factor relative to peers
- Catcher position typically correlates with fewer home runs per season than outfield or first base positions due to playing time constraints
- Kyle Schwarber is priced at 21% despite being on a weaker team, indicating strong power metrics may outweigh team performance in Derby selection criteria
- The Derby field size and selection criteria (commissioner's picks vs. earned spots) will directly determine Contreras's odds of participation and matchup difficulty
- Recent seasons show Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone at 12-16% despite being younger prospects, suggesting the market values trajectory and peak power ceiling alongside current production

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhrderby
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbhrderby

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