# Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 2 500+ foot home runs

> 1+ HRs leads at 32%, runner-up 15% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhrderby500
Updated: 2026-07-12T23:20:50.616Z
Category: sports
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: 1+ HRs at 32%
- Runner-up: 2+ HRs at 15%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ HRs | 32¢ | +8pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-players-in-the-2026-mlb-home-run-derby-re-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby500-26-1 |
| 2+ HRs | 15¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-players-in-the-2026-mlb-home-run-derby-re-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby500-26-2 |
| 3+ HRs | 6¢ | +2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-players-in-the-2026-mlb-home-run-derby-re-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby500-26-3 |
| 4+ HRs | 4¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-players-in-the-2026-mlb-home-run-derby-re-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby500-26-4 |
| 5+ HRs | 3¢ | −3pp | $170 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-players-in-the-2026-mlb-home-run-derby-re-kalshi-kxmlbhrderby500-26-5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1+ HRs | 2+ HRs | 3+ HRs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 29 | 27 | 11 |
| 2026-07-11 | 37 | 24 | 13 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-11 · 1+ HRs +8pp 29→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 2+ HRs −3pp 27→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 5+ HRs −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses whether MLB Home Run Derby participants will hit at least two balls 500+ feet during the 2026 event. At 38%, it suggests the outcome is somewhat unlikely but not remote. The probability reflects historical data on ultra-distance home runs in derby conditions—500+ foot homers are exceptionally rare even among elite power hitters swinging in a competition designed to maximize distance. Factors driving this level include the quality of participating hitters, ballpark dimensions, and weather conditions on event day. The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, scheduled for mid-July, will provide the definitive measurement. Current pricing shows higher confidence in at least one 500+ footer occurring (30¢) versus two or more (11¢), suggesting markets view incremental distance thresholds as increasingly difficult to clear. The gap between these contracts indicates meaningful uncertainty about extreme power output sustainability across multiple swings.

### Key factors

- Historical frequency: 500+ foot home runs in recent MLB Home Run Derbies occur in single digits or not at all, establishing a baseline for rarity
- Participant pool composition: The specific hitters selected for 2026 will determine average exit velocity and power ceiling; elite sluggers increase probability substantially
- Ballpark choice impact: Venue selection affects both baseline distance and whether atmospheric/dimensional factors favor extreme distance outcomes
- Measurement standards: Official Statcast or equivalent tracking technology must verify and classify each homer, introducing potential definitional variance
- Recent trend data: 2024-2025 derby results and aggregate exit velocities among current MLB power leaders provide the most recent comparable sample

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhrderby500
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbhrderby500

## License

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