# Will Junior Caminero record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 7 contracts — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhrderbylongest
Updated: 2026-07-12T22:20:49.463Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $30K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 14¢ | +11pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-record-the-longest-home-run-by-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbylongest-26-kschwarber12 |
| Jac Caglianone | 13¢ | +16pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-jac-caglianone-record-the-longest-home-run-by-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbylongest-26-jcaglianone14 |
| Junior Caminero | 19¢ | +10pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-record-the-longest-home-run-b-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbylongest-26-jcaminero13 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 8¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-munetaka-murakami-record-the-longest-home-run-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbylongest-26-mmurakami5 |
| Jordan Walker | 17¢ | +9pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-walker-record-the-longest-home-run-by-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbylongest-26-jwalker18 |
| Bryce Harper | 5¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-harper-record-the-longest-home-run-by-d-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbylongest-26-bharper3 |
| Ben Rice | 5¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-rice-record-the-longest-home-run-by-dista-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbylongest-26-brice22 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 10 |
| 2026-07-11 | 15 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-11 · Jac Caglianone +16pp 9→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Kyle Schwarber +11pp 17→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Junior Caminero +10pp 5→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Jordan Walker +9pp 14→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Bryce Harper −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Junior Caminero will hit the longest home run by distance at the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. At 14%, Caminero is positioned as a mid-tier contender, behind Jac Caglianone (22%) but ahead of several other candidates. The derby outcome depends on both sustained power performance during regular season competition and peak form on the specific day of the event. Market participants are currently pricing in higher probabilities for Caglianone, suggesting broader consensus around a smaller group of top power hitters. The primary factors affecting Caminero's probability would be his home run distance data throughout the 2026 season, invitation likelihood to the derby, and comparative performance metrics versus other confirmed or probable participants. The derby will ultimately resolve this uncertainty through direct measurement of home run distances during the competitive event.

### Key factors

- Caminero's average home run distance during 2026 regular season compared to other derby-eligible candidates
- Whether Caminero receives an invitation to the 2026 Home Run Derby and confirms participation
- Historical derby performance patterns showing which players tend to hit the longest drives under controlled derby conditions versus regular season
- Relative market probabilities for competing candidates like Caglianone (22%) and Murakami (8%), indicating confidence distribution
- Caminero's injury status and playing time during the 2026 season, which affects both derby eligibility and power numbers

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhrderbylongest
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbhrderbylongest

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.