# Will Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 14 contracts — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhrderbymatchup
Updated: 2026-07-12T22:20:49.617Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber and Jac Caglianone | 5¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-and-jac-caglianone-be-the-matc-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-kschwarber12jcaglianone14 |
| Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper | 6¢ | +4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-and-bryce-harper-be-the-matchu-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-kschwarber12bharper3 |
| Junior Caminero and Ben Rice | 3¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-and-ben-rice-be-the-matchup-f-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-jcaminero13brice22 |
| Munetaka Murakami and Junior Caminero | 5¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-munetaka-murakami-and-junior-caminero-be-the-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-mmurakami5jcaminero13 |
| Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero | 9¢ | +5pp | $942 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-and-junior-caminero-be-the-mat-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-kschwarber12jcaminero13 |
| Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber | 8¢ | — | $890 | kalshi | /markets/will-munetaka-murakami-and-kyle-schwarber-be-the-m-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-mmurakami5kschwarber12 |
| Kyle Schwarber and Ben Rice | 6¢ | +3pp | $457 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-and-ben-rice-be-the-matchup-fo-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-kschwarber12brice22 |
| Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker | 5¢ | +4pp | $178 | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-and-jordan-walker-be-the-matc-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-jcaminero13jwalker18 |
| Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone | 5¢ | −9pp | $112 | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-and-jac-caglianone-be-the-mat-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-jcaminero13jcaglianone14 |
| Bryce Harper and Jac Caglianone | 4¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-harper-and-jac-caglianone-be-the-matchu-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-bharper3jcaglianone14 |
| Bryce Harper and Junior Caminero | 4¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-harper-and-junior-caminero-be-the-match-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-bharper3jcaminero13 |
| Ben Rice and Jac Caglianone | 3¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-rice-and-jac-caglianone-be-the-matchup-fo-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-brice22jcaglianone14 |
| Ben Rice and Willson Contreras | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-rice-and-willson-contreras-be-the-matchup-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-brice22wcontreras40 |
| Jac Caglianone and Jordan Walker | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jac-caglianone-and-jordan-walker-be-the-match-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbymatchup-26-jcaglianone14jwalker18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | 7 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-11 · Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone −9pp 19→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Bryce Harper and Junior Caminero +9pp 4→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Ben Rice and Jac Caglianone +6pp 2→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero +5pp 4→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone will face each other in the championship round of the 2026 Home Run Derby. At 5%, the market is pricing this as an unlikely but plausible outcome. The low probability reflects that dozens of MLB players are eligible, making any specific two-player pairing statistically improbable. Caminero appears more likely to advance than Caglianone—contracts pairing Caminero with Kyle Schwarber (9¢) and Murakami with Schwarber (8¢) trade higher, suggesting market confidence in Caminero's participation but significant uncertainty about his finals opponent. The Home Run Derby takes place during MLB All-Star Week, typically in early July each year. Resolution depends entirely on the bracket composition, seeding, and actual performance during the 2026 competition.

### Key factors

- Junior Caminero's derby matchup contracts trade substantially higher than this pairing (Kyle Schwarber-Caminero at 9¢), indicating the market expects Caminero to reach the finals but with Schwarber or another player as more probable opponents
- Caglianone-specific finals contracts trade at or below this level, suggesting limited market confidence in Caglianone advancing past earlier rounds relative to other finalists
- The top four competing pairing contracts collectively represent the market's expectations for finals matchups and total only 29¢, reflecting high fragmentation across possible outcomes
- Any shifts in participant eligibility (All-Star selections, injuries) between now and July 2026 would directly alter the probability space
- Historical Home Run Derby performance data and 2025 performance by these specific players will influence betting as the 2026 competition approaches

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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