# Will Bobby Witt Jr. be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby

> Closed. Last odds frozen 42 min ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhrderbyqual
Updated: 2026-07-14T07:20:51.631Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | 10¢ | +6pp | $525 | kalshi | /markets/will-yordan-alvarez-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-ba-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-yalvarez44 |
| Pete Alonso | 45¢ | −25pp | $392 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-alonso-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-baseb-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-palonso25 |
| James Wood | 74¢ | −4pp | $65 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-wood-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-jwood29 |
| Oneil Cruz | 12¢ | +6pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/will-oneil-cruz-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-ocruz15 |
| Matt Olson | 11¢ | +6pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-olson-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-molson28 |
| Andy Pages | 74¢ | +49pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-andy-pages-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-apages44 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | 76¢ | +71pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-max-muncy-lad-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-bas-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-mmuncy13 |
| Christian Walker | 24¢ | +22pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-christian-walker-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-cwalker8 |
| Colson Montgomery | 77¢ | +72pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-colson-montgomery-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-cmontgomery12 |
| Brandon Lowe | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brandon-lowe-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-base-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-blowe5 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 5¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bobby-witt-jr-be-selected-to-the-2026-pro-bas-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbyqual-26-bwitt7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | 34 |
| 2026-06-30 | 13 |
| 2026-07-07 | 21 |
| 2026-07-13 | 43 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-13 · Colson Montgomery +72pp 5→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · Max Muncy (LAD) +71pp 5→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · Andy Pages +49pp 25→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · James Wood +37pp 5→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Matt Olson −35pp 50→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates a 30% chance that Bobby Witt Jr. will be selected for Major League Baseball's 2026 Home Run Derby, typically held during All-Star Week in July. Selection depends primarily on his mid-season performance metrics—particularly home run totals and batting average relative to other eligible players—and MLB's official selections announced closer to the event. The probability reflects uncertainty around whether Witt Jr.'s offensive production through June will warrant an invitation compared to other power hitters. The main catalyst resolving this question will be MLB's official Home Run Derby roster announcement, usually made in early to mid-July. Comparative contract pricing shows similar uncertainty across other candidates, with Aaron Judge trading at 4% and Max Muncy at 27%, suggesting markets view Witt Jr. as a moderate candidate relative to other sluggers.

### Key factors

- Bobby Witt Jr.'s home run count and slugging percentage through late June relative to other qualifying players
- MLB's historical selection criteria, which typically favor players with high home run totals and fan voting results
- Witt Jr.'s injury status and playing time availability heading into the All-Star break
- Competition from other power hitters—players like Judge, Muncy, and O'Neill Cruz may reduce selection likelihood if their offensive numbers exceed Witt Jr.'s
- Official Home Run Derby roster announcement date in early-to-mid July 2026, which definitively resolves the contract

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhrderbyqual
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbhrderbyqual

## License

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