# Will Bryce Harper qualify for Round 2 of the 2026 Home Run Derby

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 8 contracts — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbhrderbysemi
Updated: 2026-07-12T23:20:49.793Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone | 55¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-jac-caglianone-qualify-for-round-2-of-the-202-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbysemi-26-jcaglianone14 |
| Bryce Harper | 45¢ | −23pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-harper-qualify-for-round-2-of-the-2026-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbysemi-26-bharper3 |
| Jordan Walker | 46¢ | −20pp | $909 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-walker-qualify-for-round-2-of-the-2026-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbysemi-26-jwalker18 |
| Ben Rice | 24¢ | −5pp | $796 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-rice-qualify-for-round-2-of-the-2026-home-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbysemi-26-brice22 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 57¢ | — | $332 | kalshi | /markets/will-munetaka-murakami-qualify-for-round-2-of-the-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbysemi-26-mmurakami5 |
| Willson Contreras | 37¢ | −22pp | $315 | kalshi | /markets/will-willson-contreras-qualify-for-round-2-of-the-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbysemi-26-wcontreras40 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 67¢ | +46pp | $276 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-qualify-for-round-2-of-the-202-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbysemi-26-kschwarber12 |
| Junior Caminero | 60¢ | −5pp | $154 | kalshi | /markets/will-junior-caminero-qualify-for-round-2-of-the-20-kalshi-kxmlbhrderbysemi-26-jcaminero13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 41 |
| 2026-07-11 | 36 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-11 · Kyle Schwarber +46pp 26→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Bryce Harper −23pp 56→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Willson Contreras −22pp 44→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Jordan Walker −20pp 40→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Ben Rice −5pp 34→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents whether Bryce Harper will advance past the first round of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby competition. At 39%, the market suggests Harper has less than even odds of qualifying for Round 2. Harper's performance depends on his health status heading into the Derby, his current home run hitting form during the 2026 season, and whether he receives an invitation to participate. The contract shows lower confidence compared to elite sluggers like Kyle Schwarber (72%) but notably higher than some other qualified hitters. The main catalyst will be the MLB's announcement of Derby participants, typically made shortly before the All-Star Game in early July. Harper's first-round matchup result would provide the definitive resolution, as Derby advancement is determined by raw performance in that specific event rather than season statistics.

### Key factors

- Harper's cumulative home run total and batting average through late June 2026 season, which indicates current form and power-hitting capability
- Whether Harper receives an official Derby invitation and accepts participation, as non-participation would prevent Round 2 qualification
- Harper's injury history and physical conditioning status in the weeks leading up to the Derby competition
- The specific first-round matchup difficulty, as Harper's advancement depends on out-hitting his randomly assigned opponent in head-to-head competition
- Historical Derby performance data for Harper in previous years, showing consistency or volatility in derby-specific performance versus regular season power

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbhrderbysemi

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