# Will Philadelphia have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 2 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlblstreak
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.369Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-15

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York M | 61¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-m-have-the-longest-losing-streak-in-kalshi-kxmlblstreak-26-nym |
| Colorado | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-colorado-have-the-longest-losing-streak-in-th-kalshi-kxmlblstreak-26-col |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 21 |
| 2026-04-25 | 28 |
| 2026-05-02 | 33 |
| 2026-05-07 | 4 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates roughly a 1-in-4 chance that Philadelphia has the longest single losing streak of any Major League Baseball team during the 2026 regular season. The market is pricing in historical baseline rates for such extreme performance, adjusted for Philadelphia's roster composition and recent competitive standing. Factors supporting a higher probability would include significant injuries to key players, unexpected front-office turnover, or systematic performance collapse. Conversely, roster stability and competitive spending would lower this likelihood. The outcome will be determined over the full 162-game regular season, with clarity emerging by early October 2026 when final standings confirm which team experienced the worst consecutive-game drought.

### Key factors

- Philadelphia's 2025 season performance and current roster depth relative to other MLB teams
- Historical frequency of longest losing streaks by team and whether Philadelphia has disproportionately experienced such streaks
- Early 2026 season results through June-July, indicating whether Philadelphia shows vulnerability to extended slumps
- Injury severity to position players or starting pitchers during the regular season
- Off-season roster changes and competitive balance shifts across the 30-team league

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlblstreak
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlblstreak

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.