# Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 10 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnextteam
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:50.269Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-25

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston: Boston | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/francisco-lindors-next-team-before-mar-25-2027-bos-kalshi-kxmlbnextteam-27flindor12-bos |
| Cleveland: Cleveland | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/francisco-lindors-next-team-before-mar-25-2027-cle-kalshi-kxmlbnextteam-27flindor12-cle |
| Milwaukee: Milwaukee | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/francisco-lindors-next-team-before-mar-25-2027-mil-kalshi-kxmlbnextteam-27flindor12-mil |
| New York M: New York M | 75¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/francisco-lindors-next-team-before-mar-25-2027-new-kalshi-kxmlbnextteam-27flindor12-nym |
| New York Y: New York Y | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/francisco-lindors-next-team-before-mar-25-2027-new-kalshi-kxmlbnextteam-27flindor12-nyy |
| Philadelphia: Philadelphia | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/francisco-lindors-next-team-before-mar-25-2027-phi-kalshi-kxmlbnextteam-27flindor12-phi |
| San Francisco: San Francisco | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/francisco-lindors-next-team-before-mar-25-2027-san-kalshi-kxmlbnextteam-27flindor12-sf |
| Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/francisco-lindors-next-team-before-mar-25-2027-tam-kalshi-kxmlbnextteam-27flindor12-tb |
| Detroit: Detroit | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tarik-skubals-next-team-before-mar-25-2027-detroit-kalshi-kxmlbnextteam-27tskubal-det |
| Los Angeles D: Los Angeles D | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tarik-skubals-next-team-before-mar-25-2027-los-ang-kalshi-kxmlbnextteam-27tskubal-lad |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 69 |
| 2026-07-27 | 37 |
| 2026-08-03 | 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | 75 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-03 · New York Y: New York Y −70pp 73→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Boston: Boston −4pp 6→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · New York M: New York M −3pp 78→75¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that Francisco Lindor will be traded to or sign with the New York Mets before March 25, 2027, priced at 69% likelihood. Lindor is currently with the Chicago Cubs and entering the final year of his contract, making him a potential trade candidate before the deadline. The high probability for the Mets reflects their repeated pursuit of star shortstops and reported interest, though the Cubs have shown reluctance to part with their star player. The next major catalyst is the MLB trade deadline in late July 2026, when contending teams finalize roster moves. Market pricing could shift based on trade rumors, team performance, Lindor's stated preferences, and competing offers from other franchises like Tampa Bay and Los Angeles.

### Key factors

- Lindor's contract status: final year of deal, making him available at trade deadline without long-term commitment concerns
- Cubs' competitive position and willingness to trade: their playoff odds and financial flexibility will influence whether they accept offers
- Mets' bidding power: reported interest and payroll capacity versus other contenders pursuing Lindor
- Trade deadline timing: July 30-31, 2026 hard deadline creates discrete event for resolution; post-deadline acquisition unlikely before March 2027
- Lindor's stated preference: any public comments about preferred destination or willingness to waive no-trade clauses if applicable

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnextteam
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbnextteam

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.