# Will Pittsburgh win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 5 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnl
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.080Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-31

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee | 14¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-milwaukee-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-national-kalshi-kxmlbnl-26-mil |
| Philadelphia | 8¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-nation-kalshi-kxmlbnl-26-phi |
| Los Angeles D | 39¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-natio-kalshi-kxmlbnl-26-lad |
| Atlanta | 13¢ | +1pp | $140 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-national-le-kalshi-kxmlbnl-26-atl |
| Chicago C | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-c-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-national-kalshi-kxmlbnl-26-chc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 11 |
| 2026-06-12 | 28 |
| 2026-06-19 | 19 |
| 2026-06-26 | 25 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Atlanta −3pp 16→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates that markets assess Pittsburgh has a 12% chance of winning the 2026 National League Championship. The team's relatively modest odds reflect typical preseason expectations for a franchise not widely favored among title contenders. Key drivers of this level include Pittsburgh's roster composition compared to division rivals, their recent performance trajectory, and how transactions during the offseason altered competitive standing. The probability will likely shift as the regular season progresses and teams' actual performance becomes observable. The regular season concludes in early October, with playoff outcomes determining the final champion. Spring training results, trade deadlines in July, and August performance runs will provide data points for probability adjustments throughout the year.

### Key factors

- Pittsburgh's win-loss record and division standing relative to National League rivals at key checkpoints (May, July, September)
- Quality of starting rotation and bullpen performance metrics compared to other contending teams in their division
- Off-season roster transactions and injury status of key position players and pitchers through season start
- Head-to-head winning percentage against top National League teams and divisional competition
- Betting volume and probability shifts on this contract versus other National League championship markets

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbnl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.