# Will Brandon Woodruff win NL CPOTY

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 9 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlcpoty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.334Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $750

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 18¢ | −1pp | $680 | kalshi | /markets/will-sandy-alcantara-win-nl-cpoty-sandy-alcantara-kalshi-kxmlbnlcpoty-26-salc |
| Zack Wheeler | 28¢ | +2pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/will-zack-wheeler-win-nl-cpoty-zack-wheeler-kalshi-kxmlbnlcpoty-26-zwhe |
| Brandon Woodruff | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brandon-woodruff-win-nl-cpoty-brandon-woodruf-kalshi-kxmlbnlcpoty-26-bwoo |
| Michael Harris II | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-harris-ii-win-nl-cpoty-michael-harris-kalshi-kxmlbnlcpoty-26-mhar |
| Tanner Scott | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tanner-scott-win-nl-cpoty-tanner-scott-kalshi-kxmlbnlcpoty-26-tsco |
| Shota Imanaga | 6¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shota-imanaga-win-nl-cpoty-shota-imanaga-kalshi-kxmlbnlcpoty-26-sima |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ezequiel-tovar-win-nl-cpoty-ezequiel-tovar-kalshi-kxmlbnlcpoty-26-etov |
| Sean Manaea | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sean-manaea-win-nl-cpoty-sean-manaea-kalshi-kxmlbnlcpoty-26-sman |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tieco-winners-win-nl-cpoty-tieco-winners-kalshi-kxmlbnlcpoty-26-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | 21 |
| 2026-05-01 | 15 |
| 2026-05-07 | 8 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the 9% implied probability that Brandon Woodruff will win the National League Cy Young Award in 2026. The low probability reflects that Woodruff faces significant competition from other elite pitchers in the NL who may have stronger seasons. His odds could shift based on his ERA, strikeout rate, win-loss record, and innings pitched throughout the season compared to other contenders. The award will be determined in November 2026 after the regular season concludes, with voters considering cumulative statistics and performance metrics across the entire year.

### Key factors

- Woodruff's ERA and WHIP relative to other NL starting pitchers through October 2026
- Total innings pitched and durability—Cy Young voting historically favors pitchers with high volume
- Win-loss record and team success, as voters sometimes weight wins heavily despite shifts toward advanced metrics
- Strikeout rate and K/9 ratio compared to primary NL competitors
- Injuries or performance decline during the season that could eliminate him from contention by year's end

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlcpoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbnlcpoty

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.