# Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 7 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlcy
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.348Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 5¢ | ±0 | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-misiorowski-win-nl-cy-young-jacob-misio-kalshi-kxmlbnlcy-26-jmis |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 14¢ | +2pp | $910 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristopher-sanchez-win-nl-cy-young-cristopher-kalshi-kxmlbnlcy-26-csan |
| Shohei Ohtani | 17¢ | +3pp | $793 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-win-nl-cy-young-shohei-ohtani-kalshi-kxmlbnlcy-26-soht |
| Paul Skenes | 32¢ | +1pp | $514 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-skenes-win-nl-cy-young-paul-skenes-kalshi-kxmlbnlcy-26-pske |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 12¢ | +2pp | $364 | kalshi | /markets/will-yoshinobu-yamamoto-win-nl-cy-young-yoshinobu-kalshi-kxmlbnlcy-26-yyam |
| Mason Miller | 3¢ | −1pp | $343 | kalshi | /markets/will-mason-miller-win-nl-cy-young-mason-miller-kalshi-kxmlbnlcy-26-mmil |
| Chris Sale | 10¢ | ±0 | $140 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-sale-win-nl-cy-young-chris-sale-kalshi-kxmlbnlcy-26-csal |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 7 |
| 2026-05-08 | 16 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Cristopher Sanchez +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Shohei Ohtani −3pp 16→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Shohei Ohtani +3pp 13→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Chris Sale wins the National League Cy Young Award in 2026. At 12%, the market reflects Sale's status as a potential but not favored contender for baseball's top pitching honor. Sale's award probability would be influenced by his injury history and ability to maintain performance over a full season—he has dealt with significant arm injuries in recent years that have affected durability. The primary catalyst is the conclusion of the 2026 MLB regular season in late September, when voting determines the winner based on accumulated statistics like ERA, wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched. Voter sentiment typically favors pitchers from winning teams with low ERAs and high innings totals. The market assessment may shift substantially based on Sale's actual performance trajectory through the season and whether he avoids further injury.

### Key factors

- Chris Sale's innings pitched and ERA through the 2026 season relative to other NL starters
- Sale's team's winning percentage and playoff positioning, as voters tend to favor pitchers from successful teams
- Availability and performance of competing NL pitchers during the 2026 season
- Sale's durability record given prior shoulder and elbow injuries that have limited his availability
- The relative voting weight given to strikeouts, wins, and ERA by Cy Young voters in previous years

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlcy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbnlcy

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.