# Will New York M be the 2026 NL East Division Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 4 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnleast
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:57.167Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-29

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 3¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-be-the-2026-nl-east-division-winner-mia-kalshi-kxmlbnleast-26-mia |
| Atlanta | 80¢ | +1pp | $842 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-be-the-2026-nl-east-division-winner-a-kalshi-kxmlbnleast-26-atl |
| Philadelphia | 9¢ | +2pp | $134 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-be-the-2026-nl-east-division-win-kalshi-kxmlbnleast-26-phi |
| New York M | 7¢ | −1pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-m-be-the-2026-nl-east-division-winne-kalshi-kxmlbnleast-26-nym |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 31 |
| 2026-04-26 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | 27 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Atlanta −6pp 74→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · New York M −5pp 14→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Atlanta +4pp 68→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Atlanta +3pp 67→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Atlanta +3pp 70→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 32% probability reflects the market's assessment that the New York Mets have roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the 2026 National League East division. The Mets' position at this level likely reflects a roster evaluation against division competitors, particularly the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals, along with assessments of their pitching depth and offensive production through the season. Key uncertainties include injury status of core players, trade deadline acquisitions or losses, and the competitive strength of rivals. The division outcome will become increasingly certain as the regular season progresses, with the final weeks of play in September providing definitive clarity on standings and playoff positioning.

### Key factors

- Mets' current win-loss record and run differential compared to other NL East teams as of early May 2026
- Injury status and performance of the Mets' starting rotation and primary position players versus division competitors
- Payroll and roster composition relative to the Braves, Nationals, and other division contenders
- Historical strength of division rivals and their performance in early-season play through May 2026
- Scheduled trades or roster moves before the July 31 trade deadline that could materially strengthen or weaken the Mets' competitive position

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnleast
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbnleast

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.