# Will Elly De La Cruz win NL Hank Aaron Award

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlhaaron
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.758Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 29¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-win-nl-hank-aaron-award-shohei-kalshi-kxmlbnlhaaron-26-soht |
| Juan Soto | 17¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-juan-soto-win-nl-hank-aaron-award-juan-soto-kalshi-kxmlbnlhaaron-26-jsot |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ronald-acua-jr-win-nl-hank-aaron-award-ronald-kalshi-kxmlbnlhaaron-26-racu |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fernando-tatis-jr-win-nl-hank-aaron-award-fer-kalshi-kxmlbnlhaaron-26-ftat |
| Elly De La Cruz | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elly-de-la-cruz-win-nl-hank-aaron-award-elly-kalshi-kxmlbnlhaaron-26-ecru |
| Kyle Schwarber | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-schwarber-win-nl-hank-aaron-award-kyle-s-kalshi-kxmlbnlhaaron-26-ksch |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | 52 |
| 2026-05-02 | 21 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Shohei Ohtani −10pp 42→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Shohei Ohtani −3pp 45→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Shohei Ohtani −3pp 32→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Juan Soto +3pp 11→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Juan Soto +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The Hank Aaron Award goes annually to the top offensive player in each league, based on a formula combining batting average, home runs, and RBIs. A 14% probability for Elly De La Cruz suggests moderate long-shot status as of early May 2026. This level reflects her position in the National League's offensive hierarchy at this point in the season. The main drivers are her current statistics relative to peers—particularly home run and RBI totals—and how she performs through the season's remainder. Contract volume on related markets like her MVP odds (4¢) indicates lower trader confidence compared to frontrunners like Shohei Ohtani (42¢ for the NL award). The award will be determined after the regular season concludes in late September, with final statistics providing the decisive data. Injuries, mid-season trades, or significant performance improvements could meaningfully shift her odds.

### Key factors

- De La Cruz's current offensive statistics (batting average, home runs, RBIs) relative to other NL position players as of early May
- Trading volume and pricing on related markets (her MVP contract at 4¢ vs. Ohtani at 42¢ for NL Hank Aaron Award) indicate relative market confidence levels
- Seasonal trajectory—whether De La Cruz's performance accelerates, declines, or plateaus through May-September compared to competitors
- Historical volatility of the Hank Aaron Award voting to similar caliber players, as past winners and runners-up provide context for 14% probability placement
- Regular season completion date (late September/early October) when final statistics are locked in for award determination

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlhaaron
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbnlhaaron

## License

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