# Will Tony Vitello win NL MOTY

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 8 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlmoty
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.074Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Counsell | 3¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-craig-counsell-win-nl-moty-craig-counsell-kalshi-kxmlbnlmoty-26-ccou |
| Walt Weiss | 28¢ | +1pp | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-walt-weiss-win-nl-moty-walt-weiss-kalshi-kxmlbnlmoty-26-wwei |
| Terry Francona | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-terry-francona-win-nl-moty-terry-francona-kalshi-kxmlbnlmoty-26-tfra |
| Warren Schaeffer | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-warren-schaeffer-win-nl-moty-warren-schaeffer-kalshi-kxmlbnlmoty-26-wsch |
| Dave Roberts | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dave-roberts-win-nl-moty-dave-roberts-kalshi-kxmlbnlmoty-26-drob |
| Pat Murphy | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pat-murphy-win-nl-moty-pat-murphy-kalshi-kxmlbnlmoty-26-pmur |
| Don Kelly | 17¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-don-kelly-win-nl-moty-don-kelly-kalshi-kxmlbnlmoty-26-dkel |
| Tony Vitello | 8¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tony-vitello-win-nl-moty-tony-vitello-kalshi-kxmlbnlmoty-26-tvit |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 6 |
| 2026-04-25 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 14 |
| 2026-05-08 | 11 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Walt Weiss +3pp 23→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that Tony Vitello, manager of the Miami Marlins, wins National League Manager of the Year in 2026. At 10%, the market views him as a significant long-shot compared to frontrunners like Walt Weiss (26%). Vitello's odds reflect both the difficulty of winning awards in a competitive league and Miami's position as a rebuilding franchise unlikely to contend for playoff spots. The main factors driving this low probability are the Marlins' expected win total and divisional competitiveness in the NL East. Manager of the Year voting typically favors leaders of overperforming or surprising teams, or managers whose rosters compete for playoff positions. The resolution of this market depends entirely on regular season performance and voting outcomes in October 2026, after the MLB regular season concludes. Vitello's odds could shift significantly if Miami unexpectedly contends or demonstrates notable improvement relative to preseason expectations.

### Key factors

- Miami's 2026 projected win total relative to preseason expectations—overperformance typically drives MOTY voting
- Competitive performance by other NL managers, particularly Walt Weiss and the Rockies, who currently lead probability estimates
- Whether the Marlins secure a playoff berth or compete seriously in the NL East, which would increase Vitello's credibility with voters
- Vitello's track record managing player development and in-game decision-making relative to peer managers
- October voting results by BBWAA members, which ultimately determine the award winner

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlmoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbnlmoty

## License

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