# Will Juan Soto win NL MVP

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 4 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlmvp
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.445Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 65¢ | −1pp | $388 | kalshi | /markets/will-shohei-ohtani-win-nl-mvp-shohei-ohtani-kalshi-kxmlbnlmvp-26-soht |
| Matt Olson | 9¢ | +1pp | $373 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-olson-win-nl-mvp-matt-olson-kalshi-kxmlbnlmvp-26-mols |
| Elly De La Cruz | 4¢ | ±0 | $358 | kalshi | /markets/will-elly-de-la-cruz-win-nl-mvp-elly-de-la-cruz-kalshi-kxmlbnlmvp-26-ecru |
| Francisco Lindor | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-francisco-lindor-win-nl-mvp-francisco-lindor-kalshi-kxmlbnlmvp-26-flin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 17 |
| 2026-04-25 | 63 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 10 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Matt Olson +6pp 3→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Juan Soto currently has a 20% implied probability of winning the National League MVP award in the 2026 MLB season. This reflects expectations about his offensive production relative to competitors during the regular season. The probability is influenced by two primary considerations: Soto's historical performance and injury status through the season, and the strength of competing candidates across National League teams. The MVP award will be determined by voting after the regular season concludes in late September, with results announced in November 2026. This timing means current probabilities reflect pre-season expectations before games are played and actual performance data accumulates.

### Key factors

- Soto's batting average, home run total, and other offensive statistics relative to other NL candidates by season's end
- Playing time availability—any significant injury or time missed would materially reduce MVP chances compared to healthier competitors
- Relative strength of competing NL candidates' seasons and whether a consensus frontrunner emerges by late summer
- Team's playoff positioning and narrative factors voters typically consider when comparing similarly-performing players
- Historical precedent showing MVP voting often favors higher-profile or higher-visibility competitors on winning teams

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mlbnlmvp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mlbnlmvp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.